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The Almighty Buck

Journal zogger's Journal: Unemployment rate-before it gets spiked 14

One of the fed fatcats let it slip that the *real* unemployment rate is 16%, that's the one that matters, not 9.8 as they try to push officially. He admitted what a lot of contrarian bears have been saying, you have to include "underemployed" or part time workers who don't make enough to really live on to get a true feel for the economic situation. I have noticed after a quick perusal of several similar articles that his comments are disappearing fast from some of the larger news outlets, they include *some* of his luncheon speech highlights but not that part.

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Unemployment rate-before it gets spiked

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  • It was definitely a political football under the past administration, and was likely the same under prior presidential administrations as well. In particular though I recall that under our previous POTUS the unemployment calculation was officially changed to exclude anyone who is out of work and not looking for work (having given up). Arguments could be made both ways for whether or not the unemployment numbers should include people from that segment of the population, though the fact remains that part of
    • Actually, the "out of work, and not looking" includes drug dealers, drug runners, prostitutes, "illegal" immigrants, and a whole bevy of others.

      Remember, there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. And the government, in other words all of us, is best at using them to PREVENT PANIC.

      I hope you have been enlightened. Don't panic. If you can work for the benefit of others, you will contribute to the economy, no matter what category you "fall" into.

      Ciao!

      James

      • And that group of people, you imagine, don't need to earn their food, clothing, and shelter?

        • Ah, my point was somewhat unclear. It is my belief that drug dealers employed by a cartel, prostitutes employed by a pimp, and illegal immigrants employed by citizens "off the books" are counted in the statistic of "unemployed, but not looking" since they give the impression that they are not employed yet are not looking for work.

          Whether that is true or not, my meta point is that you have to look very closely at the numbers you get from others to see what they actually measure, before you can draw up meani

          • I was going to say; that "unemployment" has a specific statistical meaning for economists that probably elude most people's casual perusal of the daily tabloids. And so to "poverty" is a highly refined statistic that there are political pressures to redefine. (But I hadn't, and still haven't, read the whole article yet, so I'm not sure how "unemployment" is defined in this case).

          • Those sorts of folks are wealth rearrangers, not wealth producers, so including them or not, either way it is an economic negative. In fact, I'd like a clearer set of employment stats that don't include government employees, or most of them anyway.Some create wealth, most just are part of the wealth rearrangement that goes around, and it gives a skewed and overly rosy picture of the economy. Heck, you could have theoretical zero unemployment and still have a rather dismal economy.

            I think we are down

            • Those sorts of folks are wealth rearrangers, not wealth producers

              GDP is (generally) defined as a good or a service. Marijuana (in the "Drugs" example) is a good and the "Drug Dealer" is the service, as well as the intermediate industries that create goods and services in support of the industry (i.e. accountants, gun dealers and manufacturers, trucking companies, etc). Whether these "wealth rearrangers" have any negative attributes (moral or otherwise, is besides the point). Though I think the point is that "unemployment" doesn't actually measure unemployment (in the col

              • I've posted this several times before here and could give a lot of examples I guess but will limit it.

                Wealth is grown, harvested, mined, extracted from the planet somehow, then if it needs it, achieves a higher value added component that increases it's worth by any of the above combined into a manufactured good. That is wealth, and wealth production. All other is rearranging in some way, servicing it, governing it, entertaining it, or just receiving it by governmental diktat. All of that. As such, t

                • We (as a country) let manufacturing go, and now we're letting our information worker economy go. Middle-man jobs (and not enough to go around) will soon be all that there's left. I want to write code (produce something), but there's tremendous pressure to just take a paper-pusher job. Esp. at my level and age -- as a senior software engineer at the age of 43, I'm apparently somehow much more valuable in a skimming role than a production one.

Real Programs don't use shared text. Otherwise, how can they use functions for scratch space after they are finished calling them?

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