These job cuts were happening regardless of whether or not AI advanced. Low interest rates + market expansion (mobile apps + data mining + COVID increasing demand) led to a record expansion. IMHO, COVID delayed these and they would have started happening around 2020. Businesses naturally contract after expansions...a great example was the post y2k tech recession...MASSIVE, aggressive and unsustainable spending to get everything on the internet and y2k...once everyone had internet and every company had a web presence and y2k ended, companies had to downsize to sustainable levels. We created an entirely new category of consumer device...the mobile app ecosystem with the iPhone and EVERYBODY who was ANYBODY needed a mobile presence...and unlike most fads, apps are actually EXTREMELY useful for many businesses...like conventional retailers who want to do pickup or delivery models. Just like the WWW, this was a legit expansion of business function and a great benefit to the customer.
Then we had the data mining boom...I know /. hates it, but in fairness, being able to serve you targeted ads allows businesses to give away products for free. This also led to a massive expansion in providing useful apps (think Google Docs) or games for free. Yeah...there are a million things wrong with this model, but lots of companies invested a lot of money into hiring data scientists and DB professionals and big data professionals.
But now what?...we have no massive market expansion...the poor have devices & are fully connected...the mobile device market is saturated...the data broker market is saturated. Any gains in one business typically come at the expense of another. We're running out of reasons to motivate businesses and consumers to spend new amounts of money.
So now, companies have been staffing up for years...and some of their hires are total duds....some products are not really needed...but in tech, everyone had a growth mindset and wanted to hire the best talent to prepare for the next expansion and to take marketshare away from their competitors. If Amazon is laying off developers and Google isn't, then this makes new grads greatly prefer Google. So no one wanted mass public layoffs.
After expansion, you typically do need to cull a few people. Some hires just suck. Some are AMAZING in the interview and lazy or entitled when you hire them...especially when you seek geniuses. We've had HUGE issues with MIT hires...you hire some elite kid who wants to change the world and he doesn't want to design customer-facing applications. He spend all those years working his ass off to get into a top school and no amount of pay will make a real-world job with actual customers in a profitable business anything but boring AF to him...so he needs to go. I sympathize, he's an amazing genius, but he needs to start his own pioneering company, not service the needs of a mutil-billion dollar stable business. All the people who frauded their way into the interview and it shows a few years later need to go...all the people who just had a life change and no longer want to work need to go. All the people who argue with their boss on every assignment for no good reason need to go. Most MBAs need to go. :)
This should have happened around 2020 gradually, but COVID caused an increase in demand so companies held off. Then the triple threat of Elon Musk bumbling his way through managing Twitter + interest rate increases + BS AI hype gave them the cover to cut jobs. Once everyone was doing it, you had no disincentive to clean up your own organization.
AI is not causing the job decline. AI isn't useless....but it's FAAAAR from useful enough to replace an employee. It might cause hesitation to expand from people who have never used AI and believe the bullshit from Sam Altman and Mark Zuckerberg and Jensen Huang, but....anyone who actually uses it knows it can't even write code that compiles. At best, it can make existing developers a little more productive, but not 2x or 10x or whatever the hypemongers are promising. If someone can be replaced by AI today, they weren't a valuable employee....they were DEFINITELY underutilized before and this just hastened the inevitable.
What's our new expansions? AI? VR? Both have amazing theoretical possibilities, but have not really delivered any huge hits. My kids love their VR headset...for about 2 weeks and got bored. I don't know of any killer app fueling people to spend lots of time in VR...beyond early adopters and enthusiasts. The same with AI...it's fun to play with and businesses are investing with hope of it fulfilling the promises made...but no tangle results. No business is making money from AI with the exception of those selling AI solutions or hosting them. Once a killer AI app emerges, that will change...something that services an existing business need using an LLM (like how Uber/AirBnB/Tinder serviced business needs on mobile).
Additionally, if we get a new category of business for tech to expand to, we'll see a similar cycle of expansion, saturation, and contraction.