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Comment Re:They're cheaping out so Elon can make (Score 1, Insightful) 163

He made a show of stepping away from politics but I don't think anyone is so dumb that they believe he's really doing it

He left the WH because he was hogging the limelight and Trump didn't like it. This is the Trump Show, not the Elon Show.

Elon already turned himself around to kiss ass, but Trump will not forget his lack of loyalty. This tells you two things, Elon is weak, and Trump will definitely try to punish him, because he only ever attacks weak opponents and friendlies.

Comment Re:I Disagree (Score 1) 69

Erm. How many trillions of dollars does it take to redo "Google" in your organization yourself, inhouse?

The argument about the value of AI is about if it is superhuman, because only superhuman capabilities justify the fuckload of investor money being thrown into this technology. There is a bubble currently and it will burst, and in the meantime the bubble is causing unnecessary destruction in the economy, by reorganising companies with proven expertise into generic service providers of dubious quality.

Comment Re:Was SARS-CoV-2 an example of "harms"? (Score 1) 52

I'm just not convinced that AI designer viruses qualify as a major impending threat to humanity. To be more precise: There are plenty of natural biological/virus risks that dwarf this threat already.

The first one that comes to mind is the natural adaptation of microbes to antibiotics in hospitals. No AI required. Just natural selection in interaction rich environments. There are a lot more uncontrolled experiments in hospitals with sick people than lab experiments, statistically it's not close.

Another is climate change. No AI required. The biosphere is in equilibrium. A few degrees more in some parts of the Earth, a few degrees less in other parts and now you have chaotic changes that affect everything: crop yield changes => people migrating => wars, famine => refugees. Here's another: Animal habitat changes => insects, rodents migrating => mutations, new transmission vectors. And one more: higher temperature => fungus temperature adaptation => human bodies get more fungal infections.

Aside from all that, IMHO the doomsday AI designer virus scenarios tend to be overly simplistic intellectual masturbation. They tell you what if someone builds a really dangerous virus and say nothing about how the world would respond to it. They always assume that building it is enough, that nobody will find an effective defence, and that the game is over. Lame.

There was a plague in the late Middle Ages in Europe. No doctors knew how to prevent it => Classic doomsday virus scenario. Did people just let it wash over them and accept their fate? No. They isolated the infected. They killed the infected. They burned everything down. Two thirds of the population of Europe died. The other third survived. No AI required.

That's what happens in a complex system. You can't predict the effect of one player's actions, because that prediction assumes that the other players don't react in any inconvenient ways. But in a complex system, usually the other players change the game.

Comment No they didn't (Score 5, Insightful) 17

April and May coincided with Trump Tariffs. People did the math. Either upgrade now or pay twice as much for the same product in 3 months, and that's if the current crazy American government doesn't completely ban all foreign imports and makes the iphone vanish in the USA.

BTW the tariffs are only paused for a couple more weeks... (yes I know about TACO)

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