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Comment Re: Termination Shock (Score 1) 78

I can't speak for Siberia, other than the fact that it's not great farmland and it's cold. However, the main problem with Canadian land north of the Great Lakes is that it's mostly Canadian Shield. This is a geological feature where the bedrock is exposed. There's not much soil to speak of, and you can't really excavate for foundations, etc. It's very expensive to build on, and food mostly has to be trucked in from elsewhere. It's still worth building there if you have a mine nearby, but most people settle where there's food and waterways for transportation. Climate change might warm up the Canadian north a bit and lengthen the growing season, but it's not going to suddenly create topsoil.

Comment Termination Shock (Score 2) 78

I think the novel "Termination Shock" is a more accurate portrayal of what's going to happen. Countries and organizations that have something to lose from sea level rise will fund geoengineering efforts to keep the arctic and antarctic from melting, and they will need to either do it secretly, or have a large enough military force to defend whatever it is they're doing. I can't see an agreement to reduce fossil fuel use... not in this political *ahem* climate anyway.

Comment Re:4 inch rise = two islands disappear? (Score 1) 45

The ocean level varies during the seasons, and even throughout the day. So when the average sea level rises 4 inches, what matters more is the extreme weather events. How high does it get in the worst case, and how often? A good example if the number of days that Venice shops are flooded per year. It's now up to 100 times per year, and it was a lot less in the past.

Comment Riding on name recognition (Score 2) 70

Any new superman movie is going to rake in a lot of money just based on name recognition alone. I went to see it, and I'm someone who *is* tired of superhero movies. It wasn't bad. Definitely watchable. But it wasn't amazing either. I'm not going to watch it a bunch of times. As a comparison, we went and saw F1 the week before, and it was a more enjoyable movie than Superman. It wasn't perfect either, but it got the job done. As far as how much money it brings in, remember that the Minecraft movie is closing on a *billion* dollars, and I'm sorry, but that was a piss-poor stupid movie that ran 100% on memes and name recognition. It knew its audience. We're just so starved for good movies now that we'll eat dirt and call it steak. Those of us who lived through the late 90's of film know how far Hollywood has fallen.

Comment Re:Be thankful (Score 1) 105

It's very simple. Experts need to continually prove they're worthy of trust. If they do that, people will slowly start trusting them again. If they abuse that trust, people will kick them back out. This isn't rocket science. And I can tell you that there's a rot at the core of academia, and people know about it and are fighting back. We won't put it behind us until we see significant reforms.

Comment Re:Be thankful (Score 1) 105

You should first study the long winding path that brought us to this point, to give you perspective, and then you should look at current events as the tiny small footsteps that they are when compared to the long stretch of time. Sometimes we stumble on long walks. When this happens we should avoid spending all our time despairing at the road stretching out endlessly ahead of us, and take some time to appreciate the distance we've already covered. Then we need to return our eyes to the ground before us and allow the stumble to focus our mind on the importance of carefully considering every step.

Comment Re:Be thankful (Score 2) 105

We happened to go through a period of many decades (perhaps even a hundred years) called modernism, where the populace generally respected experts and expertise to make our lives better. But post-modernism has long challenged this idea of faith in science, expertise, and the enlightenment, and there have been many very public failures of experts to do the right thing over that time. From Thalidomide, to toxic chemicals being dumped into the environment, to the Challenger disaster, to the second Iraq war, and the 2008 financial crash, then actively talking about managing public perception in the middle of the pandemic, and yes, even the Epstein saga, these events have all eroded public trust in the experts and the institutions. The current spate of populism (literally framing all issues as the masses vs. the elites) is a direct result of this loss of public trust. People are simple... they will only believe something that they have an incentive to believe. It's hard to get them to believe that outsourcing all the manufacturing to China, or bringing in lots of foreign laborers is a good idea because it makes the GDP numbers go up, especially when they themselves compete in that low-end labor market. We can regain a sense of modernism, but putting the reins of government back in the hands of trusted experts starts by regaining trust, and we have a long way to go before we get there.

Comment Re:Be thankful (Score 1) 105

Human progress is hardly monotonically improving. But the general positive trend over time is substantial and impossible to ignore. While we're throwing away many of the substantial gains we've made over the last 75 years (globalized trade, a rules based global order and the relative worldwide peace it provides), we're not likely to completely lose these things, and a few years of seeing what life is like without them will probably change people's opinions in the years to come. Mostly history acts like a ratchet, but sometimes we backslide.

Comment Be thankful (Score 5, Insightful) 105

While it's important to keep working on issues of the day, it's also important to look back at where we were and how far we've come. Progress like this is based on small incremental improvements over decades and even centuries. About a hundred years ago, the death rate from measles in the US averaged about 5 per 100,000, which would mean roughly 15,000 deaths per year today just in the US. All those lives are being saved *every year* just due to a single vaccine program. We need to be thankful for the work that prior generations did that are truly amazing and have improved our lives immensely. It's trendy to complain about how bad life is, but that's disingenuous when you realize how bad people had it throughout history. Heck, just look at the infant mortality rate in the US.

Comment Re:Damn (Score 0) 41

I've been working in industrial automation for 25 years, installing industrial robots and manufacturing machines and so on. All of these machines were only ever installed at companies that were growing and hiring more people. I've never seen a machine installed that was followed by lay-offs. Plants only close down because demand dries up, or because they can't compete with the cost of overseas labor. Faster automation is the only way to make American workers compete with workers in China for the same work.

Comment Learned helplessness (Score 4, Insightful) 189

I think what we're seeing is called "learned helplessness". They try, for all of 3 minutes, and don't see immediate improvement in their lives, and give up. We're conditioning people to expect immediate feedback. But all progress takes a long time. You have to stick with it. As someone once said to me, "if you want to dig a big hole, you need to stand in one place for a while." Also, the phone can be a useful tool, but it doesn't have the answers you need. Real people doing work out in the real world are the people you need to talk to, and the ones getting stuff done are making a living doing it, and don't need to post all their secrets online to get clicks. Work for someone who knows what they're doing, pay attention, and ask them some questions during the slow times when they take a break.

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