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Comment Wind, Solar, Natural Gas, plus Batteries (Score 1) 112

I consolidated ERCOT's Fuel Mix Reports for 2007 thru 2024 to see what's happening with our power grid in Texas.

What I noticed was power generation via Fossil Fuels is fairly steady, though Natural Gas has been replacing Coal, while Renewables (Wind & Solar, not much hydro here) have expanded to meet the growth in demand.

Can see my graph in this tweet.

Can access my spreadsheet here on iCloud, enter anything for name (such as nada) when prompted.

I'm also starting to see storage in action, as seen in the screenshot here it's helping supply power twice a day. Our wind power peaks overnight when demand is low, so in the morning the batteries supply stored wind power to help with the increase in demand when people get up. And in the evenings the batteries supply stored solar power to help with the increase in demand that occurs as people get home.

The above screenshot's from ERCOT's Dashboards page. Can also use the direct link to just the Fuel Mix dashboard. If you mouse-over the color labels at the bottom, such as the Maroon dot and Power Storage text, the other colors in the graph will fade out to make it easier to see the fuel source you're interested in.

Comment Re: Does it though? (Score 1) 113

We've been investing in our grid as well: $7 Billion Wind Power Project Nears Finish

By the end of December[2013], developers expect to flip the switch on the final electrical transmission projects built under the state’s Competitive Renewable Energy Zone, or CREZ, initiative — the years long effort to connect windy, largely secluded West Texas to growing cities that demand more power.

Once finished, the build-out will stretch nearly 3,600 miles and will be able to send 18,500 megawatts of wind power across the state....

...Texans will eventually shell out $6.8 billion to finance the entire build-out, according to a project update released this week by the PUC ...

The new fees, Hadley said, will likely add several dollars to a residential customer’s monthly bill.

Haven't seen anything about jet engines, though I know last year we built out solar & storage: New report shows Texas led nation in solar and battery growth in 2024. A couple weeks ago I noticed storage was supporting our grid twice a day, previously I'd only see it helping in the evenings.

We've likewise deployed smart meters, I think mine was installed in 2013. CenterPoint Energy Reaches Significant Milestone in Smart Meter Deployment

CenterPoint Energy Houston Electric's five-year smart meter deployment began in March 2009. By the end of the year, 145,000 smart meters will be installed along with the necessary communications infrastructure and computing systems. 2.4 million meters are expected to be installed system-wide by the project's completion in 2014.

Comment Re: Does it though? (Score 1) 113

And I live in Texas where solar + wind provided 34% of our electricity last year (ERCOT Fuel Mix report for 2024), which is higher than the US average of 21.4% for renewables(Electricity generation, capacity, and sales in the United States). Despite that, our prices in Texas are lower than the US average.

This suggests its not the renewables themselves that are causing the prices to go up, but something else. By looking at other US states that generate large amounts of wind and/or solar power that something else appears to be political.

I agree its a good investment - I installed solar + PowerWall in 2019. To date it's generated 86% of my electricity, which includes charging my Model 3 (I got my first one in 2018, and my second one in 2024).

Comment Does it though? (Score 1) 113

Where wind power is harnessed shows that the top 5 states for wind power are: Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Illinois.

Where solar is found and used shows the top states for solar power are: California, Texas, Florida, and North Carolina (the 4 dark orange states in utility scale map).

Per here the average electric rate in the US is 15.83 cents/kWh.

The 6 Republican states have a rate lower than that: Florida 13.44, Iowa 14.45, Kansas 13.36, North Carolina 12.30, Oklahoma 12.15, Texas 12.27.

The 2 Democratic states have a rate higher than that: California 30.45, Illinois 16.02

This suggests politics may be a bigger factor for high electrical rates than renewables.

Comment Re:Sacrificing freedom? (Score 1) 312

I'm not taking a trip like Wisconsin or Yellowstone every month, just once or twice a year. My folks are retired so they do take more trips than I. Our weekend trips are around Texas, a couple weekends ago we did the Texas Triangle. Friday after I got off work we drove* to Bandera (just west of San Antonio) for my aunt's birthday. Saturday evening we drove to Dallas for the Sunday afternoon Honor Flight pre-flight meeting for my dad (a Vietnam veteran). Sunday evening after the meeting we drove back to Houston.

Charging is now so prolific, and fast** that the majority of our stops are:

1) plug in
2) go use restrooms
3) unplug
4) resume trip

which is faster than getting gas as nobody needed to stand next to the car to monitor the refueling process. On occasion we need to wait 5 minutes or so for the car to be ready, which makes those stops comparable to getting gasoline. On the drive to Dallas we stopped at the largest Supercharger site in Texas. It's located at the Buc-ee's in Temple and has 68 stalls.

* the car did most of the driving. FSD has gotten quite good in the past year, I seldom used it prior to Tesla's 2024 Xmas Update as the prior builds were unnerving at times.

** in 2018 Tesla's Superchargers maxed out at 120 kW and we often had to do the slow-charge to 100% (charging from 80-100% takes the same amount of time as 0-80%, so during trips so you only charge to 100% if absolutely necessary as otherwise you're wasting time). With the widespread rollout of V3 Superchargers most of my charging now is at 250 kW, the older Superchargers were bumped to 150 kW, and I no longer need to do the slow-charge to 100%. The latest V4 Superchargers go even faster, but at the moment only the Cybertruck can accept the 500 kW it offers (on V4 Superchargers we'll still max out at 250 kW in our Model 3 and Model Y).

Comment Sacrificing freedom? (Score 2) 312

I have freedom to travel - been road tripped all over the US since getting my 1st Model 3 in 2018. My folks enjoyed the trips they'd taken with me so much that they bought a Model Y. We typically take a 2700 mile round trip each year to visit family in Wisconsin. We took my folks' Model Y on our longest trip so far: 5000 miles to Yellowstone, onto Tacoma Washington to visit family, then back to Houston.

I also have energy freedom - 99% of my charging is now done via the solar panels on my roof by using Tesla's Charge on Solar feature that was added in 2023. Do you distill your own gasoline?

Comment Maybe, maybe not (Score 1) 312

For the first 6 months of owning my 1st Model 3 in 2018 I charged using the 120V 15amp outlet in my garage. It "filled up" at a rate of 5 mph, which means it will top off the 33 miles per day US average in just over 6 1/2 hours.

My home in the Houston metro only has 100 amp service as I have a natural gas stove, dryer, water heater, and furnace. I had an electrician install a 240V 50 amp outlet at the end of 2018 because I'd switched to a free-nights electric plan and wanted to make sure all charging was done during the free period. Even though the rate increased, by shifting EV Charging and using the delayed start feature on my washing machine and dishwasher to the free period I was able to cut my electric bill by %20.

I will caveat this by saying a 120V 15amp would not be adequate for an EV that is parked outside in the winter in northern states. From experience all of the energy ends up being used to warm up the pack, with none going towards actually charging it. I suspect it would work OK if the EV was parked in an enclosed garage, but have not been in a situation to try that myself.

Comment The cognitive dissonance is real (Score 1) 265

I've had people give me long lectures about the un-usability of EVs while I have driven them across the city, errands, and back on purely electric power in my PHEV.

I've had family members tell me "EVs won't work in Wisconsin in the winter", yet in 2019 I'd already taken my Model 3 on a road trip from Houston to visit them in the winter.

Road trips have only gotten better since with the rollout of faster chargers, in 2019 the 250 KW V3 Superchargers started to be deployed and most of the exising 120 kW Superchargers were increased to 150 kW, and the massive expansion of the Supercharger network over the past 7 years can be seen in the maps I posted in this tweet.

Comment EV transition will take longer than many think (Score 2) 66

A common piece of EV FUD is "the grid can't handle it if everybody switches to a EV", which ignores that it's going to be a multi-decade transition.

For the US our vehicle fleet size is about ~284K are on the road

About ~16K light vehicles are sold per year

So it would take ~18 years to transition the fleet to all EVs if 100%of new vehicles sold were EVs. However, EV sales are only~10%, and that's likely to drop next quarter due to sales being pulled forward by the end of the Federal Tax Credit, so we're probably looking at 2-3 decades for the transition.

Back in the 50s we saw the grid more than doubled in capacity in less than a decade when the widespread adoption of AC (air conditioning) occured. This video covers that.

Comment Re:$35K Model 3 was briefly available (Score 1) 137

You're welcome!

Yes, it was $35K before the tax credit, from 4:41 - 4:55 of the Edmunds video they talk about the price and show the Monroe sticker with $35,000 (not $34,999). Tesla hit the 200K sales limit of the original EV Federal Tax Credit at the end of 2018, so the tax credit for them was being phased out in 2019 - it was $3750 for the first half of 2019 and $1875 for the second half.

Yep, in Diamond Bar. I think that was the Warpstock that Timur didn't book a hotel room and ended up crashing in the extra bed in my room. I also attended Warpstock in Chicago, Toronto, and Austin. I did presentations on emulation in Toronto and Austin. Looks like Warpstock started putting the presentations online in 2002, including mine. In 2003 a friend gave me an old PowerMac G3 - over a 6 month period I switched from OS/2 to OS X, so I stopped attending Warpstock. I did have OS/2 running under Parallels on a Mac Pro for a long time, but one of the updates to Parallels broke my VMs so I switched all my VMs to VirtualBox. I bought a Mac Studio in 2023 and haven't run a VM since as none of them supported Intel operating systems as guests on Apple Silicon. Looks like Parallels does now, but warns that performance is very poor.

Comment Yep, lots of excess capacity at night (Score 1) 137

There's so much excess power at night that free-nights electric plans like this one are common here in Texas. When I had a free-nights plan I was able to save 20% over my prior plan by scheduling my Model 3 to charge, and my washer and dishwasher to delay-start, during the free period.

Not on the plan anymore as I've since installed solar and have my Model 3 scheduled to charge when I'm generating excess solar power - I work from home so this works well for me.

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