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Comment "War Is a Racket" (Score 1) 96

> "War is a racket. It always has been. It is possibly the oldest, easily the most profitable, surely the most vicious. It is the only one international in scope." -- General Smedley D. Butler

Equipping both sides is totally normal. The US does this all the time. So do other nations. It has been going on in the mid-east for ages.

If you have not heard the Bob Dylan song "Masters of War" in a while, you should listen to it again.

Comment PR article (Score 2, Informative) 289

This is a PR "thought leadership" BS article by Benjamin Riley, Cognitive Resonance, who "provides direct consulting support to organizations to improve understanding of how generative AI works."

This doesn't mean they're wrong but it's probably nothing terribly original (there is a reason why it's not on openreview.net as a submission into one of the relevant AI conferences).

Comment Where's Moore's law in this (Score 2) 54

What I don't get is this: let's say they believe that to get to "genuinely useful AI" (generating value in business, automating science) they need 1024x the compute they have now; which I think is ballpark with their spending.

But Moore's law says that number of transistors doubles every 2 years, so if we believe we can keep this going then in 4 years time they'll only need 256x the data centres and in 8 years it's only going to be 64.

So all the chips they put in will be next to worthless in 8 years and they'll only need a fraction of the other infrastructure. So all this massive spend is to be first because? Because whoever is first will be able to use their "genuinely useful AI" to out-innovate everyone to singularity?

The whole thing is a one-way bet on the empirical LLM scaling laws (https://ancillary-proxy.atarimworker.io?url=https%3A%2F%2Farxiv.org%2Fabs%2F2001.08361) scaling to something useful, which I don't buy.

Comment They will just use a different visa (Score 1) 82

There are dozens of visas. If one is effectively ended, they will use another. The L-1 can be used in many cases.

The L-1 visa is a nonimmigrant visa for tech workers who are transferring from a foreign, affiliated office to a U.S. office of the same company.

So some guy is hired by an Indian staffing firm over in India, the transferred over to the US where he is contracted to work at Microsoft by the same staffing firm. I think MS partners with, at least, one of these firms.

That is just one loophole, there are many others.

If Trump was serious, he would charge a 20% additional fee on the salaries of all visa workers.

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