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Comment Re:Solid State batteries (Score 1) 180

BYD is already selling 5 minute charge LFP batteries. They are deploying 1000kW chargers for them in Europe now, with the UK getting some this year.

I'd certainly hope so, as Desten had 8 minute batteries in 2021.

LFP batteries are very stable and hard to ignite - you can stab them and they will be fine.

Solid state will likely be even better, and likely continue to get better for longer.

Europe already has commercial EV trucks doing thousands of kilometres for deliveries. Charge times are largely not an issue because the rules require drivers to take regular breaks anyway, to avoid dangerous fatigue.

Yeah... no. Not everyone has the same standards for rest, nor the same enforcement level.

There is also battery swap technology, again already deployed widely by Nio in Europe, and I think BYD have some in China too. Takes less than 3 minutes, probably a bit longer with a truck, but if the desire is there for faster than fuelling "charge" times, the problem is already solved.

I like Nio's battery swap, personally think it's a great idea, but solid state will put a crimp on it if only for convenience. Don't get me wrong, I understand not wanting to pull 30+ Megawatts (for 20 or so 1k chargers with overhead, and a couple truck chargers) directly from the grid. That's why I'm saying we'll need to increase baseload capacity amongst other things. However, knowing people, even if they would rarely use it they will buy solid state over LFP if there is a perceived benefit for themselves.

Even Mercedes are only claiming "up to" 25% better energy density, but at the rate at which CATL and BYD are improving their batteries, by 2030 when they are ready to launch that will already be behind the curve.

Except Mercedes won't be static either, improving their own product. Innovation doesn't only exist in one direction.

Bottom line is I think it would take a real miracle breakthrough to be disruptive. Toyota is working on solid state batteries too, but they are also years away from sales, while the Chinese eat their lunch. Both Toyota's and Mercedes' current EV offerings are mediocre as well, the rest of their tech isn't up to much.

Meh, as someone who has seen the best and worst of Chinese EV's I wouldn't exactly go to town bragging about the mini-Tesla's either. In case you're missing it, I'm using Tesla as a derogatory item here. I have always found Tesla's, at best, to be overpriced cars with worse fit and finish, often with as many problems, as a low end, early 70's, AMC. The Chinese BEV's often are, at the least, interesting. However China didn't ban them from using self-driving (or similar) in advertising for nothing.

Then again I jokingly refer to many Mercedes as "service department queens."

Comment Re:Non-Logging Polices (Score 1) 117

Yes but business, in particular, has become particularly nonchalant about not protecting user data.

The problem is that there aren't any repercussions because we treat businesses as these mythical people with special rights and privileges. We pretend there is recourse, but there is none for the average person. Heck the only way a single thing will happen here is if the wrong group of people is hurt. Normal peons? PFFFT! One of the protected class? OMGWTFBBQ ELEVENTY-ONE HOW DID THIS HAPPEN??? Then it's a problem.

The government would absolutely despise it, as it would limit their data collection. You'd better believe corporations would freak the frack out at having to give up eternal data retention. Credit agencies would be apoplectic.

Of course it won't happen for that very reason: The required privacy legislation would have EVERY corporation fighting it, along with the myriad of agencies in the government aligned against it, would result in it stalled unless something horrific happened.

Comment Re:Solid State batteries (Score 2) 180

The real question is if they can get the cost to a level that the market is interested in. We have seen a lot of technologies trying to enter this space, but they usually fail because conventional lithium batteries get cheaper and improve so rapidly that the additional cost isn't seen as worthwhile outside of very niche applications.

Keep in mind the "Top Gear Mercedes Argument" when talking about affordability.

Mercedes has put in a LOT of quasi-experimental - but ultimately successful - technology into factory production cars first. Not that they are the only company that does it, but for bleeding edge tech they seem to do quite often. The added bonus for them here is this technology is so important to EV's and has a ridiculously high potential for disruption.

Now I'm not electric car guru, but I believe the arguments of solid state is they would make the 10 minute charging (current energy density) batteries look positively pokey, they'd be less dangerous (fires) than current batteries, have a longer lifespan, and ultimately would offer a much higher energy density.

That last one with quick charging alone would be a literal money printing machine for Mercedes... if they can crack it. Remember that current EV trucks suck for towing because of weight and the massive drop off in range towing plus charge time. Now in petrol vehicles you still get a big drop off in MPG towing, but fueling is faster. How about doubling the energy density of pickup truck battery, to 350kWh, for no appreciable weight difference and saying you can charge it to 100% in 10 minutes? You've just made every petrol truck in the US a fossil. I won't even go into what that would happen to the Tesla Semi if Mercedes started selling large EV transports with solid state batteries.

Again, at that point it becomes a money printing machine... which is why so many companies are chasing it. However it's still up in the air who gets there first.

Comment Re:Wait, what? (Score 1) 191

I think there are more heat pumps than most people realize. Straight up air conditioning is probably still rare, but there is not a shortage of heat pumps.

The further towards the Mediterranean you get, the more heat pumps are installed.

Just wait until we need to crank up the use of heat pumps in the US. That should cause base load to spike dramatically.

Comment Re:Contradictory hypocritical bullshit (Score 1) 69

Well, you know what it means because Elon had xAI's Grok saying it knew about people with certain surnames, that it was an unapologetic truth teller that thought Adolf would be the best 20th century figure to deal with the Texas floods, and that you could call it Mechah*tler.

Although since all this crap is being pushed by the second Trump administration, I'll assume it's two weeks away... and will remain that way for the foreseeable future. Kind of like how Full Self Driving is always "next year" according to Elon.

Comment Re:This will keep happening (Score 1) 13

A simple solution to this exists:

Fine all the C-levels the equivalent of their entire compensation package for as long as this project existed, while they were at the company. Any previous executives are also fined. Fine the company an entire year's income before taxes, depreciation, et al., and make that fine non-deductible from taxes.

You want to claim you are indispensable, that you are steering the ship, that means YOU deserve all the blame. You ware in charge, right? You are the one directing the company and/or teams, right? You set the tone, right? Then you can be punished as a failed leader.

Comment Re:Affordable is not the problem (Score 1) 110

We don't need any government rules except one. The rule that telcos can't block private efforts to install fiber

I'll disagree a bit about rules, but I will say that Telcos should flat out be told to drop dead whenever they are bleating to block others. Why? When you get to the point some other broadband option is moving in, or some municipality has voted to install a separate option, your company has failed. They can own their failures and deal with the fact their intransigence has created a new competitor. I don't particularly care if that new competitor is a private company or if they are the municipality. Telcos, and to be honest cable, have coasted for decades on a barely competitive duopoly in populated areas... and often near monopolies in less populated areas.

They can deal with the new competitor(s) by competing. This whining about losing their (near) monopoly status is predictable and should be ignored.

Comment Re:Calling it "denazification" makes no sense (Score 1) 274

Yes, the Russians are anti-Nazi which is why calling them is that is such an insult. Of course, the fact that Putin is a classic fascist makes it hit even harder, since it is almost true.

This falls into the game of "If I say that I'm X does that really mean I'm X, or does it mean I'm just using the name."

The National Socialist Workers Party was neither Socialist nor pro-worker. I would also hesitate to call the Democratic People's Republic of Korea either Democratic or a Republic. All of it is just performative crap designed to be public justification in a broad sense, but even the public knows that it is crap.

Putin and the Russian government just bleated about Nazis to make it more palatable Russians, but it's all performative crap that Russians know is a lie. That's no different than MAGA buying there's 20 million MS13 / other gang immigrants instituting a criminal reign of terror across the US. Most the MAGA faithful don't truly believe it, but it gives them an excuse for their hatred so they pretend it is true.

Comment Re:Lasers vs drones (Score 1) 265

The KF51 uses drones to wall hack. Oh, let me translate that: The KF51 Main Battle Tank uses drones with datalink for targeting. So if the drone can see you, and there's nothing in the way that will stop the round, the Panther can blow you up.

"Datalink" technology, something that Russia doesn't have and Ukraine only has extremely limited use of compared to most Western militaries, is going to become the showstopper with both invasions and drones. Kind of hard to find a hole through defenses if they're linked and using Western drone defenses. By the by, the US and EU have been working on drone defenses since about 2002, seriously ramping up around 2010.

Comment Re: How many times? (Score 1) 124

Until they don't, see: Cinderella. That's the problem, you're taking 100 year old stories and trying to adapt them into modern circumstances. Quite often it only kind of works, not being notable at all as a success or failure. Sometimes it fails spectacularly, often because they didn't get the current zeitgeist. Very few times it becomes a breakout success. Although...

I can't believe it! This is completely UNPOSSIBLE. We were told by Fox News, their talking heads, and the rest of the right-wing echo chamber that no one would want to go see MS13 Wokeman. Surely they will have to be admitting that 'MURICA is woke now. NAHHH! Expect new poutrage for the next movie they don't like, as they paper over this as "some surname driven wokeness that people STILL watched because: reasons." Gotta keep that perpetual outrage machine running!

Comment But we gots the Big Beautiful Bill (Score 3, Informative) 241

So the wealth should be trickling down... any... day... now... any day.

I saw it written elsewhere best: Art Laffer should go down in history as the penultimate economic terrorist. No other single person has enabled a larger wealth transfer than he did with his napkin doodle to falsely justify gutting the social safety net to give billions to the top 2%.

Comment Re:We need nuclear (Score 1) 48

Expense is a real concern.

I can always tell someone with a lot of spare money / privilege because they talk about building new this, or wanting to ignore how we're meeting base load. They're also the people that assume people will buy new electric cars, or that delivery services will all be like the Amazon Rivian or USPS duckbill, brand spanking new.

The brutal reality is we're going to be doing a LOT of retrofit, and re-use. Why? Limited money / resources. That means those old, less efficient, houses will have to be used in many places. Those older electric vehicles with batteries that might only reach 70% of original capacity might still be used. Reused solar panels and storage might become a real industry.

We're going to have to be flexible to meet the needs of the many, and I'm talking in the US / Canada / EU / Japan / Middle East / China (et al) right now... I haven't even scratched Africa / Asia / South America (et al) where there may be far less funding available.

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