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Comment Re: Shades Of The 2008 Financial Crisis (Score 1) 36

The infection was already there. Anyone who'd invested in any mortgage derived securities was compromised because the underwriting and scoring process was fundamentally fraudulent. Securities are rated and, at least in theory, those ratings are supposed to reflect the degree of risk. But the scoring agencies essentially became captives of the folks minting the securities and just handed out great ratings like halloween candy.

The Fed and the money printing and all that -- concerning as it all was -- really had more to do with making sure the national banking industry and therefore the currency didn't fail. There was a moment there when it really felt like a financial 9/11... like everything could come crashing down all across the world as a result of something that happened in Manhattan.

It's just an anecdote, but I vividly remember the short-term credit markets freezing up and everyone collectively realizing that nearly every business in the country uses short term credit to manage cashflow so that they can decouple employee paychecks and infrastructure purchases from sales and client payments in terms of timing. Most people just didn't know that and, without credit to make the accounting process move fluidly, like half the country was looking down the barrel of "well, we'll pay you when we know we have money in the accounts."

It's easy to run the Fed down now, but we were one or two days away from a grim fable with an unhappy, bloody ending.

Comment Shades Of The 2008 Financial Crisis (Score 1) 36

This all powerfully reminds me of the deals the big banks like Lehman Brothers and Bear Sterns struck back in 2006 and 2007. If you're too young to remember that particular shitshow, the mortgage industry was fundamentally toxic and a bunch of securities were created by mushing bad mortgages in with good ones so that the combination looked secure enough to invest in.

And then THOSE securities were subdivided up and repackaged into even more securities. And so on. And so on.

Bad debt ended up "infecting" the entire market such that it was essentially impossible to invest in "safe" mortgages and so, when the collapse happened, many of the banks found out that the bets they *thought* they were making to hedge their bets on the risky side of the housing bubble were, in fact, just MORE BETS on the risky side of the housing bubble.

At this point it's essentially impossible to invest in technology without investing in AI which means its very hard to bet against AI in the tech industry. And that feels very, very dangerous.

Comment Re:Stop Having Kids (Score 1) 78

That is the only thing that will get the attention of oligarchs and politicians.

Sure, it will get their attention. Then what? Apparently you think: "well then they'll change conditions to make parenting feasible." No, they won't. They'll just do what they've been doing: import 80 IQ third worlders, preferably under a visa regime that makes them compliant.

Comment Related links (Score 1) 78

Among the "Related links" appearing on this stories page: "New Junior Developers Can't Actual Code."

No more fake-it-till-you-make-it eye-tee jerbs.

Also, what will India do? There aren't going to be positions for the hoards of $60k/year visa slaves and their "masters" degrees. There won't even be work for the remote ones: the language models are just as good, if not better, at copypasta "consultant" work as the remote Indians.

Comment Re:Hoping it succeeds (Score 1) 118

Like

ADC/DAC for agile RF, sensors and control systems. MEMS for gyros, etc. MCUs by the boat load. All the stuff Russia can't make in sufficient quantity for their nightly launches of hundreds shahed, cruise and ballistic missiles to conduct their civilian slaughter fest.

Probably 95% of it they can get from China. But there is a small yet crucial set of devices that they can't: high end ADC/DACs are certainly among those.

Comment Re:/me gets butter and salt (Score 1) 64

We can't have an extradition treaty with a country that doesn't even pretend to care about its people.

Wait! China doesn't respect human rights? That can't be right.

That was the whole (purported) point of Clinton (Mr.) et al. gifting MFN trade status and other benefits to China, and creating a huge new frontier for the evacuation of our industrial base. You're not saying we crushed our manufacturing economy for literally nothing, are you? That's ridiculous. The Clintons would never allow such a thing to happen. Shame on you.

Comment Re:Hoping it succeeds (Score 3) 118

It's a smart move. We all know the "problem" can't actually be solved; there is no feasible way to prevent sanctioned nations from getting ahold of pallets full of microelectronics after they leave the factory and get shipped all over the planet. But it will motivate Western companies to be more circumspect about who they're dealing with, if only to avoid embarrasing headlines, and this will create higher costs for Russian arms manufacturers, a.k.a. the Russian government. Russia is in deep economic shit that is rapidly becoming catastrophic, and higher costs will add to this pressure.

Comment A little irony for ya (Score 1) 118

https://ancillary-proxy.atarimworker.io?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.myarkansaspbs.org%2F...

Arkansas PBS is excited to announce that former State Rep. Carlton Wing has been selected as the agency’s new executive director and chief executive officer. Wing brings more than three decades of leadership experience in broadcasting, media and public service to the state’s only public media network. The Arkansas PBS commission and staff are looking forward to his first day in the office, on Tuesday, Sept. 30.

Maybe they should have been a little more nervous.

Comment Re:Hopefully they can survive that long (Score 2) 29

Their total # of vehicles sold are actually expected to decline in 2025.

I guess you mean their annual car sales?

Specifically:
Overall Guidance: Rivian adjusted its 2025 delivery target down to 41,500 - 43,500 vehicles due to retooling for the next-gen R2 platform, impacting production.
(vs about 51K in 2024)

I guess I'd call that a blip if the numbers play out and they get R2 up and running - which I'm looking forward to.

Comment Re:I laughed (Score 1) 56

For Aldi, which uses Instacart, I assumed it was because there is no 'fee' for pickup, but they have to pay someone to shop for you. I consider the difference a convenience fee.

That said, by not shopping in store, I end up getting only what is on my list and end up paying FAR LESS than I would if I was wandering around.

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