Journal tomhudson's Journal: GM planning to shink, become smaller than Ford or Toyota 7

But first, GM is in the process of abandoning all overseas operations in an attempt to "save" what it can in North America. Saab? Bankrupt. Opel is next.

In other news, the numbers for the bailout request to Canada contain some interesting stats that show just where GM is headed. From 22,000 jobs in 2005, to 12,500 jobs now, to 7,000 jobs in 2010. And they want $9 Billion from Canadian taxpayers to "preserve" those 7,000 jobs - or over a million dollars a job.

Over the next decade, GM will be shrunk to just GMC and Chevy. The current game plan, which involves preserving GMC, Chevy, Cadillac, and Buick, is unworkable, because both the Cadillac and Buick brands are pretty much being dealt a demographic death blow. Cadillac? Only people over 55 still see some cachet in the brand. Everyone else who wants a luxury car thinks Euro or Asian. Buick? Look at what happened to Oldsmobile ... add a few years, shake, stir, and - tada - gone, because the same negative demographics, plus the "smell of death" which now taints all GM products, are working against the brand.

You simply can't sell a "luxury car" or "premium vehicle" image when you're on the dole, living hand-to-mouth, and begging in every public square. GM products are now (even more than they were over the last few years) perma-branded as down-market.

You knew Pontiac was marked for euthenasia the day they started showing ads matching Kia's entry-level price point. Saturn? Buh-bye ... Hummer? $Worth $5 $billion? $Hummer? $Ha$ha$ha. It's worth is negative in this economic climate, same as -to put it into context - the worth of a 21" CRT (can't even give it away because it weighs a ton).

So, Ford will become the #1 North American manufacturer, Toyota will be #2, and GM will be 3rd or 4th.

You may have noticed I haven't mentioned Chrysler. That's because they are dead. There is NO possibility of Chrysler lasting, even with bail-out money. Minivans were the majority of their sales, and ALL of their profits, and we saw how quickly things curdled when THAT market cratered. What does Chrysler have left that has value or interest to consumers, aside from Jeep? Nothing. The Dodge RAM, which was hot a decade ago, is now just a fat ugly sister that nobody wants to take on a date. Cars? Nobody buys a Chrysler car any more.

A quick walk with my dogs a few nights ago confirms what everyone already knows - that GM and Chrysler are zombies. On one street, I counted over 40 vehicles - and only 4 were GM (and they were all over 5 years old) and not a single Chrysler. On another block, there was a newish Ford van, another (old) GM, but mostly Toyota, Honda, Kia, Mazda, etc. To look in the streets and parking lots, Chryslers' car assembly plants must have vanished into a black hole at the end of the last century.

You can't make people buy cars they don't want - and people obviously for the most part don't want what GM and Chrysler are building, so expect to see Chrysler disappear, GM pare down to just GMC trucks and Chevy (with *maybe* the tarting-up of a Chevy or two when times get better), with Ford becoming #1, and Toyota building more cars in North America than GM.

One obvious implication is that GM will never be able to pay back the bailout funds. Ever. Not going to happen. Any money given GM should be in the form of DIP (Debtor-in-Possession bankruptcy funding) or otherwise prioritized over any other debt, including shareholder and bondholder debt. However, governments being financially stupid (it's not their money, after all - it's taxpayers' money), we know who's going to be stuck with the bill in the end.

BTW - A million dollars a job? For jobs that will pay less (in some cases a lot less) and have fewer benefits than they do now? Are you f*cking retarded??? GTFO! If you're going to blow that sort of money, use it to buy a significant stake in a viable manufacturer (or buy one, two,or 3 outright).