Journal tomhudson's Journal: Why Windows 7 will fail. 27
Cheap thumb drives and over 100,000 viruses
Time and cheap hardware are working against Microsoft on this one. It's important to get Windows 7 out the door to overcome the negatives of VistaME and the latest round of layoffs (no, it wasn't Microsofts' first round of layoffs, just the first that got a lot of attention).
Time, because every time, the spin from Microsoft is unspun quicker than the last time. In this case, it didn't take more than a week before all the astroturfing about how Windows 7 is "a new Windows from the ground up" became "This is the Vista Microsoft should have released", and begrudging acknowledgment that it is, in fact, Vista at its' core.
Time, because the Windows franchise just continues to collect more dings with each iteration, while the alternatives continue to make gains.
Cheap hardware, because people will not pay more for a crappy, virus-prone operating system and office suite than they will for the hardware it runs on.
Time, because as more people successfully switch from Windows to other operating systems, word gets around.
Cheap hardware, because we can now stuff a complete linux distro on a $25/16-gig or $50/32-gig usb drive. Lots of space for apps and user data. With more and more distros offering a hosted "build-your-own" service, including support for installation on usb keys, this cheap "take your whole OS + environment + data in your pocket" is going to be a game-changer.
For example - someone is complaining about how s-l-o-w their computer has gotten? Just lend them a usb key for a few days, and tell them that if they really like it, all they have to do is click the "install" icon
The availability of $25 16-gig usb drives that allow "tasting" of free operating systems, including saving gigs and gigs of user data will change the way we look at the desktop almost as much as high-speed internet changed the way we looked at the Internet.
What can Windows 7 offer that can compete with that? Will it even be installable on a thumb drive and moved from machine to machine? I doubt it. Their activation/validation stuff would throw a hissy fit.
One large step further (Score:2)
OS + APPS + data, on a 500 GB or even 1TB external drive - plug into any machine with enough RAM, a keyboard, mouse, monitor and network access and awa-a-ay we go! Save any new data desired, shut down, disconnect, walk away. Where can I sign up for this? Seems to me driveless equipment kiosks (okay, *maybe* a DVD/CD burner) will be the next hot thing if I'm right.
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
Most people wouldn't want to "lend out" 1tb external drives to people on an ad-hoc basis - at least not at todays' prices, but you're certainly able to use both a usb (for booting and apps) and the external drive (for bulky long-term storage). But when you consider that you can fit the OS, the video player, several full-length dvds, and your other apps all onto a thumb drive ... why bother with those big external drives?
The advantage I see over the next year are more along the lines of an alternative to
Re: (Score:2)
I understand - I would *not* be lending out my big drive to anyone else to try, so your thumb-drive O/S has some merit: My thought was to take the hardware commoditization process to the extreme - not everyone *need* carry a big bulky 1TB unit, the thumbers would be welcome - a Nose" section which would readily accept "thumbs", and then a "Trailer" section for those applying Tractor-Byte Drives (Tm!)
No resident HDs to have to clean/wipe/re-install, no worries over what any user-at-their-own-risk might down
Re: (Score:2)
I don't know it if would be much of a business model, because hardware prices are so low that anyone who can't afford a box isn't exactly a good market.
Still, maybe they should offer something like that at libraries ... and maybe businesses should start keeping a bare-bones (no hard drive) box hanging around for visitors/reps/etc. It's a thought.
Re: (Score:2)
Many people have coffepots at home and in their offices/places of work, yet Starbucks and its ilk thrive...
Re: (Score:2)
Starbucks recorded its first-ever loss last year, and is laying off people.
During recessions, the rules change. People won't spend money for an "upgrade" that doesn't give them enough of a perceived benefit. The longer XP is kept alive, the worse it gets for Microsoft, since they won't be shelling out for Microsofts' real cash cow - Office.
I respectfully disagree by 1 level of consequence (Score:2)
Let's not forget that there is no difference between a planned economy (i.e. Communism, Auto Bailout) and government corruption which places a monopoly in charge and leaves no competition. The reasons you describe are simply a consequence of the cause of corruption.
ubuntu FTW
Re:I respectfully disagree by 1 level of consequen (Score:2)
You have a point. monopolies bear the seed of their own failure. A lack of competition always lets them get stupid.
Competition is healthy. When the DOJ didn't break up Microsoft, I told people this was the best thing to happen to open source. People were surprised, but then I pointed out that, if Microsoft had been broken up, then we'd be seeing a version of MS-Office for linux, which would have just extended the monopoly in one more direction. And IE for linux.
Instead, OpenOffice is a viable tool, an
Vista Windows 7 (Score:1)
Re: (Score:2)
Most people use their computer for email, the web, word processing, spreadsheets, presentations, a bit of database stuff, and one or two other apps.
For them, linux on a usb key is the perfect way to get a taste of an alternate universe where viruses aren't a problem, where your computer doesn't mysteriously slow down every time your AV decides that it needs to do something, and where you go to only 1 site to install/update everything. For a lot of users, it "just works."
As for games, it looks like Mic
Re: (Score:2)
What games? One of the most popular games on the PC is StarCraft (I still have my disks, there are guys at the school that play weekly, etc) and we're not even talking about the DeCal thing, but my point is, that it plays almost perfectly on Linux _right now_. Granted, I can't play DNF or WoW (actually wiki says WoW runs on CrossOver) on my Linux box _right now_ but for most people, they don't want Linux to play games, they want it to get things done. Sure, playing games is fun, but do you really have a
Re: (Score:1)
WoW will work on vanilla WINE with some finagling, as will Sins of a Solar Empire (Impulse, their update manager, will not), EVE Online, and DnD Online.
With CrossOver, even more games and apps run and install smoothly. I just got Photoshop CS2 (I know, old) working under Ubuntu on my media workstation.
Re: (Score:2)
Very intriguing.
Unfortunately, I still manage a Windows shop, so I'm stuck in Microsoft-land most of the time, so there's no point in totally killing my Vista partition. Therefore, I have no major advantages to switching over to Ubuntu completely, although I do all my major school projects on OO.o or other OSS apps quite often. I've been known to pop into Ubuntu to write C/C++ code rather than fire up Vista and then Visual Studio, just because it was that much faster and easier to use the U to do it. Yeah
Re: (Score:1)
I completely understand in the business world that Windows is needed in many, if not most cases. I was simply popping off a comment about WoW on linux. :)
As far as your rhetorical question (I know, but there's an answer!), there actually is a way to get the VC libraries installed under wine.
Have a google of "winetricks", it's a script built by some WINE contributors that will install various DLLs and registry entries for certain things (like the VC distributable, .NET 1.1) to work.
It's not perfect for .NET
Re: (Score:2)
Shame on me for not expounding further. No no, the mere fact that I would need VC redistributables and the like is not my problem. No, it's all the COM interop and some really nasty stupid libraries that would cause me grief. I'm sure it would actually end up working fine in the end, but I'm too loathe to even attempt to try and get Wine to install it.
The troublesome application in question is ACT by Sage, a CRM app that has "heavy interop" with Office. By heavy interop, I mean that for each application
Re: (Score:1)
I'd like to see a posting on ACT on thedailywtf some time. I vaguely remember using it in the Mac OS 6 days. ugh.
And if you like Homeworld, you will have a geekgasm over SoaSE. It's like Homeworld on a galactic scale - instead of controlling the battle in the sector then moving on to a new one, you control it at the interplanetary level. You can zoom all the way in on the lowliest "drone" fighters, or zoom out so far you can only see the stars on the map - and every level in between.
Short answer - SoaSE
Re: (Score:2)
Intriguing, thanks.
Oh, here's a good starter for you for tdwtf. Act's loader program, seriously looks to see which ACT versions are available, using a specific numeric system, then loads the latest one. That's all that's on the start menu. I could've written that in a dos or vbs script, or, more importantly, I could've just only had the start menu shortcut point to the latest version of the program. What a concept.
This is the level of madness of that piece of software. It's unreal.
If you code, have you
Re: (Score:2)
You really, really don't want to do that :-)
You have to install cygwin, then gcc, and you're still left without a lot of the things we take for granted in modern distros.
Re: (Score:2)
Well but of course. My point was that I didn't want to get a lot of backlash from some fringe groups thinking that I should just install gcc and use notepad++ on Windows.
Besides, I remember some years back (around 3-4) installing gcc and such on my XP box wasn't a big deal, and let me compile code just fine. I may indeed have ended up installing cygwin, but this was years ago, and as my co-workers like to say, "I've slept since then".
Anyways, on to the next thing in life ;)
Those may be some factors, but ... (Score:2)
I think there's a completely different reason Windows 7 is going to be adopted only slightly faster than Windows Vista, and it's the one Microsoft is actually most afraid of. It's because their competition is Windows XP.
Despite the claims of various OSS people, Windows XP is more than good enough for the average home user. I'm not saying it's perfect, and I'm not saying it's secure, or not filled with inconveniences, or spyware or whatever. I am saying that XP does everything an average home or office
Re: (Score:2)
True, Microsofts biggest competition right now is themselves - XP. However, most XP installs eventually crap out, the user can't find their install dvd (or on newer laptops, they burned their install dvd, then forgot where they put it), and then it becomes time to bite the bullet. If the reason the computer barfed was because of spyware/malware/viruses, despite an up-to-date antivirus, that person is going to be VERY open to switching to another os from ABM - Anyone But Microsoft.
Apple will benefit imm
Re: (Score:2)
Don't kid yourself. Microsoft knows how to play hardball. They're working to ensure that Windows XP/Vista/7/??? remains installed as the predominant desktop of virtually all of the Fortune 500 companies (excepting AAPL and SUN, of course.) There may be slight declines as some of these companies give open source alternatives some test shots, but there is already a massive infrastructure built up in today's corporations that is 100% dependent on Microsoft.
We already saw this scenario early in the histor
Re: (Score:2)
The reason Apple lost to IBM was strictly on price. It was the same with Betamax vs VHS. The cheaper technology wins out.
BTW, Apple has more users than Vista. Vista supposedly has 60 million sales, but they're counting people like me who don't use it, and they're also including in that figure the 20 million "upgrade to vista" vouchers they stuffed in the channel right before vista was released, on those "vista-capable" boxes.
Average PC vs Mac lifespan: http://www.roughlydrafted.com/RD/RDM.Tech.Q1.07/9E [roughlydrafted.com]
Triple boot (Score:2)
I'm currently checking out the Win 7 beta. They could seriously fix the UAC issue by having a user generated white list. As it is, any time I want to run a program that "makes changes to the hard drive" it asks for verification. Massive PITA which is why most people turn i
Linux still has its Achillies Heel... (Score:1)
Namely, gaming. I technically keep a Gentoo dual boot up to date on my Vista 64 Ultimate machine. I don't ever find myself wanting to boot to it except for monthly "grab all the updates" runs because my computer primarily exists to play games and Blu-Ray discs.
I recognize that the latter "problem" in particular is more in the hands of the various consortia that don't care for open source than in the hands of Linux but at the same time it's going to be frustratingly hard for me to make any kind of switch.
Re: (Score:2)
It's not that much of an Achilles Heel - most people don't use their computers for "serious gaming".
Certainly it isn't a consideration at work - much ;-)
Then again, for the older games, there's no reason not to keep an old win9x install on a usb key (there are tools around for getting it to run off removable media).
Re: (Score:1)
My work is a nice mix of all linux servers with a pair of Windows Domain controllers talking to a Samba/LDAP server, and a desktop contingent of about 60% Windows 35% Linux 5% Mac (because I don't care either way, and since we buy Red Hat the TCO is depressingly similar) for the eclectic mix of developers we have here.
Most of whom play Battlefield 2 after hours.