1) We're just going to paper over that you didn't know that attribution graphs even existed until this point and thought that CoT was the only way to audit models, now are we? Duly noted.
2) Also duly noted: that you had so little clue what you were talking about that you had an AI write your post for you - not only obvious by the weird formatting, but by the heavy use of emdashes. You clearly told an AI "write a counterargument for this topic I don't understand" and posted it in.
Do I really want to waste time responding to something that you don't even care to take the time to learn about yourself? Let's at least respond to the non-AI part... oh wait, you just copied that off a website word for word :P And even there you had to take them out of context - your "look more definitive than it really is" is right before clarifying " is that researchers have gained a valuable microscope with a limited field of view" - not "a black box". Do you not feel at all embarrassed at all this flailing you're doing to not lose face in this thread?
Let me help you: attribution graphs show you the piece you choose to look at at any given point in time. It is impossible to hold the whole process in mind at once, as that is far too complicated (you can't generally hold all of large conventional software projects in memory either, for that matter), but you can isolate down the key pieces making individual decisions, just like you can trace back results on conventional software. E.g. if you're trying to figure out "Why did it make this diagnosis?", you can determine the key factors that weighed on the diagnosis. And if you're wondering how any of those contributory circuits reached their conclusions, you can drill them down, on and on, back through simple activating features and all the way down to individual neurons if you need to. Indeed, we didn't arrive at the high level picture immediately, we started with tracing back simpler features and circuits.
We can tear down every decision down to the root; it's just a question of how much we care about tracing everything back vs. saying "Yeah, this feature consistently activates when a patient is reporting headaches and we can artificially activate or remove a headache signal; that's good enough" and not waste more time bothering with it. What you care about in understanding "how they come to the results they have to offer" is the high-level picture. Just like how when evaluating why a human-written program is exhibiting a given behavior, you don't start by drilling down into every line of every library printing call or whatnot - you start at the high level, and only drill down if you need to. If a function says it's a sleep function and it consistently seems to sleep, unless you have any reason to doubt it, you don't drill down into the sleep code, even though it's technically possible that it's doing something else as well in rare cases.
It's also worth pointing out that such papers on attribution graphs are old news by this point and we've far moved on (literally, that was work on Claude 3.5 Haiku - Claude is up to 5.5 now) - I link it only as an introduction. This is rote these days. For example, in the blog you plagiarized without credit, it says - "At the same time, evidence of planning in a constrained poetry task should not be inflated into a claim that an LLM has stable long-horizon agency in every setting." - but that was well addressed by the J-space.
I'll repeat: LLMs are not "black boxes" that you cannot see into. You can determine why any given decision was made, if you only care to. It is a myth that we are blind to their decisionmaking. That was once true. It no longer is. Stop repeating that misinformation.