Not sure what you're waiting for.... I've migrated already to ProxMox. No, it's not as feature rich, but it's also not an extortion priced product. And, because Broadcom owns CarbonBlack, I also ripped CB out of our environment for end point protection. Plenty of tools in that space to choose from and I'm sure has hell not going to give Broadbitch a dollar for the way they screwed me on VMware.

That was a bit snarky and could lead to an irrelevant technical debate.

I should point out that, most importantly, when OpenAI claims that they air gapped these systems in any way (including just isolating them as a VM with no network device attached), I DO NOT BELIEVE THEM. They have done nothing to suggest that they are being honest about the situation. They only admitted fault when they got caught and then only in such ways that would allow them to weasel out of any legal liability.

It does not matter if an AI system can escape an air gapped system because we have no reason to believe that is what actually happened.

You and I clearly have a different definition of air gapped.

Programs do not just randomly do this. The guys at OpenAI knew the capabilities of the software, wrote its instructions, and intentionally ran the program.

They are only claiming these things are rogue because they got caught and they see this absurd claim as a way to avoid liability.

If I wrote a worm, tested it on my local network despite knowing that by design it could escape that local network and cause real damage, and then it did exactly that, no prosecutor, judge, or jury will let me off the hook when I claim I only intended to test it on the local network.

I would love to see the AGENTS.md for this thing. . .

Well, there's been at least 3 posts about it so clearly, somebody cares.

Depends entirely on the numbers and whether those resources are scarce in that place. If the datacenter ends up funding the expansions, and then the community make a profit every month forerever on supplying those utilities, it's a win.

That nightmare scenario actually did play out not long ago near me. A woman from out of state was falsely ID'd by an AI camera of some kind and was detained for months and it wrecked her life.

My sentiment is that the process was wrong and that the officers and other parties involved in this should all be fired, and the woman compensated.

None of that is what normally happens; that is not happening "millions of times". That's why it was newsworthy when it _did_ happen.

The original comment was philosophically open ended.

I made the example in my response very specific because arguing about hypothetical generalities is usually not productive.

The difference is this: it's difficult to ascertain if someone is guilty or innocent without arresting them. YOu don't arrest people via a random statistical sampling; you arrest via a biased selector: You arrest people you have high odds of beleiving are likely to be guilty. And you arrest them because you cannot ascertain their guilt via non-destructive observation. Without arresting them, they are allowed to simply walk away while you are trying to ascertain their status.

An arrest rate of 10% of all humans would be ridiculous.

A false positive rate of 10% _among the population of people you arrest_ is acceptable.

So the applicable comparison isn't "your cell phone doesn't work 10% of the time", the applicable comparison is "when your cell phone wasn't working, the tech support team guessed correctly as to the root cause 90% of the time, but guessed incorrectly 10% of the time"

IOW, 90% success rate with a 10% FP rate amongst a problematic cohort.

>No I maintain it would be pathetic performance by LEO if they were willy nilly arresting people hoping to bag the perp.

Nobody is advocating for that.

The cops should only be arresting people they have a plausible reason to arrest. If it turns out that 10% of the time their guess was incorrect, that's acceptable. They are not performing random arrests and getting a lot hit rate. They are doing targeted arrests and getting an ultra high hit rate.

>AI is being forced inappropriately into peoples lives with no opt out *everywhere*

I agree with you, and I also don't like that, and I think stopping that via market choices and legislation, as appropriate, is the right thing to do.

In my mind that's totally separate from what I am talking about and commenting on.

That said, you can make legislation so that you're not forced to use it (or be spied on by it), but you cannot make a law that stops AI development. If nothing else, the law won't reach beyond our borders. And eventually a nation hostile to you will develop ASI and then they will impose it on you (and worse)

I've been a professional software engineer for 30 years.

AI has changed everything for software engineers.

I wrote a line of code by hand saturday (client blocks AI) and it was weird. I hadn't done it in months.

I don't have a crystal ball. I cannot say for sure whats coming.

But I would say this: if the scope of your ambition is small, e.g. the possible amount of value you can add as a business (or as an employee) is fundamentally constrained by something, then having a machine do that thing way more efficiently than you is a problem.

Machines will take an increasing share of your fixed pie.

Lots of software isn't that.

Lots of software is trying to make the pie bigger.

We're doing things now that we never would have tried. The incremental cost of writing code goes to zero. Software engineering changes. What assumptions about what you do and how you spend your time and what value you provide change when the cost of writing code goes down 10x or 100x?

For all of human history, the speed of acheiving every goal has been limited by available high-IQ-hours. At every moment in human history, there was unimaginable value not being created because it didn't make the cut compared to everything else that also needed doing - the brains capable of doing it didn't have the remaining hours to do it.

Artificial intelligence is changing the math on that. Unbounded level of available hours at what appears to unbounded level of IQ.

You are trapped in a prison made of your own lack of imagination.

(I'm not saying I'm not, by the way)

I don't understand your point. Can you explain it for me?

I assume you have never tried making an AI model of the type we're discussing (near-frontier LLM), and you have also never tried making a printing press.

Neither have I.

However, knowing a bit about how LLMs work, and knowing a bit about model training for non-LLM models, and having done a bit of word working and metal work, I assume it's actually easier now to make an AI model at home than it is to make a printing press at home.

My response included assumptions which might not hold.

If the way that police work actually worked was "we pick 100 names randomly out of the phone book, arrest them all, and 10 were innocent" ... the biggest problem would _still_ be that of a random sample you have a 90% guilty rate. That's actually not even civilization. Nobody actually trapped in a "society" like that would object to being detained and released.

So the way to think about it is, "we detain 100 people for whom we have probable cause - we believe a crime was taking place, and we believe they were proximal or involved in that crime.. and we have only a 10% false positive rate"

That's really quite good.

So for instance, if you have a riot and you arrest 100 people, and then later you find out that 90% of them are actually criminals, but 10% of them actually didn't break any law, and release that 10% - I'm fine with that. It was completely reasonable to arrest all 100 of them in the first place - they were, after all, in physical proximity to a riot, and they looked and acted enough like the 90% of actual rioters that the police (correctly) detained them.

A fine way of not getting arrested in this scenario is to stay the hell away from riots. And when "protests" become riots, _leave_.

If revolution, anarchy, and violence are the goal, fine. But then don't expect due process.

It sounds like you're saying that the printing press was just a technical enabler, sometimes in the hands of bad people. You're saying that the printing press per-se was neither good nor evil; it was the people who used the printing press for evil ends that really caused the problem.

Me too.

>Should we accept jailing 10 innocent people to catch 90 actual guilty criminals?

Yes.

This is one of those questions that seems philosophically interesting but is not interesting pragmatically.

When you jail someone, you have reason to believe they are proximate to what you believe is a crime. You remove their freedom to move/act temporarily while you ascertain the existence/severity of a crime, and if they are a party to that crime.

When you figure out that you made a mistake, you release them.

The (presumed) alternative here is patently ridiculous.

A society where 0 innocent people are arrested but 90 guilty people run around is much worse than a society where 90 guilty people are caught and 10 innocent people are temporarily detained.

The actual #1 threat to Americans is not being improperly arrested, but being victimized by known repeat criminals who are repeatedly released back into society.

Bukele shows what is possible.

think "Manhattan Project"

The USG doesn't want to be significantly behind anyone else when it comes to having ASI. That's the national security _interest_.

Our elected officials didn't know anything about atomic bombs in 1942 either. They still don't. Back then, the USG provided national security controls and oversight to one of the biggest and most successful fronteir research and engineering projects in human history.