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Comment Re: This is why we need public health insurance (Score 2) 101

You should be careful of taking the claims of the Chinese Communist Party at face value. China has universal health insurance, but it is administered in a way that many people canâ(TM)t access critical care *services*.

For example if you are a rural guest worker in a city, you have health insurance which covers cancer treatment, but it requires you to go back to your home village to get that treatment, which probably isnâ(TM)t available there. If you are unemployed you have a different health insurance program, but its reimbursement rate is so low that most unemployed people canâ(TM)t afford treatment.

Authoritarian governments work hard to manage appearances, not substance. This is a clear example. It sounds egalitarian to say everyone has the same health insurance, but the way they got there was to engineer a system that didnâ(TM)t require them to do the hard work of making medical care available to everyone.

If you want an example of universal healthcare, go across the strait to Taiwan, which instituted universal healthcare in the 90s and now has what many regard as the best system in the world.

Comment Re:Hamsters with hand grenades! (Score 1) 47

Most likely that we would blast ourselves back to the stone age without sufficient remaining resources for the survivors to rebuild advanced technologies.

That's doubtful. Ever since the printing press there's been ample capability to have information written down and spread widely.

Probably not the resources he means. The cheap easy to access energy of oil just popping out of the ground has already been used. As more resources are consumed the easier to get to and easier to process ones go away, and you need a certain minimum level of tech to get to/extract/use what remains.. If that goes away, you might not have the resources to build the tech to get more resources.

Comment Re: effective? (Score 4, Insightful) 131

The COVID mRNA vaccines were the culmination of decades of research into genetic vaccines that could be in essence engineered to target a selected antigen without the years of trial and error that are required by the methods we have been using since the 1950s. Within days of the virus genome being published, they had a vaccine design, the months it took to get to the public were taken up with studies of the safety and effectiveness of the heretofore untested technology, ramping up production, and preparing for the distribution of a medicine that required cryogenic storage.

It would be unreasonable not to give the Trump administration credit for not mucking up this process. But the unprecedented speed of development wasnâ(TM)t due to Trump employing some kind of magical Fuhrermojo. It was a stroke good fortune that when the global pandemic epidemiologists have been worried about arrived, mRNA technology was just at the point where you could use it. Had it arrived a decade earlier the consequences would have been far worse, no matter who was president.

The lesson isnâ(TM)t that Trump is some kind of divine figure who willed a vaccine into existence, itâ(TM)s that basic research that is decades from practical application is important.

Comment Re:even worse (Score 1) 117

If I have touristy things to show off and a limited run are we really going to make the case they shouldn't go to NYC and LA first, the two largest cities and cultural capitals of the nation?

As someone who did an "around the USA" trip last year (I'm not american) of all the places we stopped/stayed (disney world, vegas, yosimite national park etc) LA was the worst.

It's not quite "escape from LA" movie level, but it was darn closer than I'd have liked it to be.

Comment Re: Talking about the weather (Score 1) 149

Sure, itâ(TM)s quite possible for two people to exchange offhand remarks about the local weather apropos of nothing, with no broader point in mind. It happens all the time, even, I suppose, right in the middle of a discussion of the impact of climate change on the very parameters they were discussing.

Comment Re:Fight over land vs fight over cultural conversi (Score 1) 45

The Israeli military did leave.

Yes, which wasn't what I was suggesting, I was suggesting keeping the IDF within israels borders (not leaving israel)

Construction material was imported, then stolen by Hamas to build tunnels. Material that actually went into infrastructure, for example some water pipes, were dug up by Hamas to make home made rockets.

Just like how compressed air cylinders in hospitals had to be manually shot up/destroyed after capture by the israelis because hamas might use medical equipment? Anything of use by civilization can be repurposed tools and materials are tools and materials.

Gaza farms were fine before the currently military campaign in response to Oct.

Since the 1967 war israel has had full control of their water resources, farms having water access removed has happened long before oct 7 ( as well as air dusting to destroy them also but that's later on).

The controlled demise had been around since after the 1967 war, the 2006 blockade was just another measure to tighten the noose (a very effective one).

Don't conflate post-Oct 7 with pre-Oct 7.

This is all pre oct 7, strategically oct 7 only made sense as an attack because the response was predictable and could not be hidden. You can slowly starve off a population and make them fully dependent without people taking notice. Dropping more bombs by weight than the equivalent of the first nukes used on Japan is not so easy to hide from the world. Their mistake was thinking the world would care enough to stop them.

When one side has their military doing the rounds to destroy rainwater collection pots and bulldozing wells so that people must move on or die of thirst.. it's weird having that behaviour defended by people. This this not start on october 7.

Comment Re:I live (Score 4, Interesting) 149

The thing to understand is we're talking about sixth tenths of a degree warming since 1990, when averaged over *the entire globe* for the *entire year*. If the change were actually distributed that way -- evenly everywhere over the whole year -- nobody would notice any change whatsoever; there would be no natural system disruption. The temperature rise would be nearly impossible to detect against the natural background variation.

That's the thinking of people who point out that the weather outside their doors is unusually cool despite global warming. And if that was what climate change models actually predicted, they'd be right. But that's not what the models predict. They predict a patchwork of some places experiencing unusual heat while others experience unusual coolness, a patchwork that is constantly shifting over time. Only when you do the massive statistical work of averaging *everywhere, all the time* out over the course of the year does it manifest unambiguously as "warming".

In the short term -- over the course of the coming decade for example, -- it's less misleading to think of the troposphere becoming more *energetic*. When you consider six tenths of a degree increase across the roughly 10^18 kg of the troposphere, that is as vast, almost unthinkable amount of energy increase. Note that this also accompanied by a *cooling* of the stratosphere. Together these produce a a series of extreme weather events, both extreme heat *and* extreme cold, that aggregated into an average increase that's meaningless as a predictor of what any location experiences at any point in time.

Comment Re:Fight over land vs fight over cultural conversi (Score 1) 45

Also the blockade is not to prevent aid and supplies, it is to make sure all is closely inspected for contraband such as weapons.

The snowden cable leaks revealed Israels stated intent to the USA was to crush any form of normal economy and to make them "tighten their belts" without crossing into mass starvation territory. Keeping them hungry.

With those goals in mind they achieved them quite well. Full dependence on Israel's mercy, without the resources to further their lot in life, slowly starving and being killed off.

Not that anyone would have the will to do so, but if the same style blockade were done to Israel (no military leaving the country, no iron/steel/construction materials, no control over water/resources, food imports limited based on population, farmlands destroyed by air) do you think they'd be fine with that? (not original responder)

Comment Re: Biodiesel [Re:Synthetic fuels] (Score 1) 363

Sure but the advantage of crops is you can easily scale your solar collectors by planting more acres. There are soybean farms with a half million acres out there that would produce significant amounts of biodiesel if used for that purpose. Now algae is a lot more efficient in a physics sense, but an equivalent algae facility would be on the order of 100,000 acres. The water requirements and environmental impacts of open algae pools would be almost unimaginable. Solar powered bioreactors would increase yields and minimize environmental costs, at enormous financial costs, although possibly this would be offset by economies of scale.

Either way a facility that produces economically significant amounts of algae biodiesel would be an engineering megaproject with higher capital and operating costs than crop based biodiesel, but an algae based energy economy is a cool idea for sci fi worldbuilding. In reality where only the most immediately economically profitable technologies survive, I wouldnâ(TM)t count on it being more than a niche application.

Comment Re:Fun in Austin (Score 2) 110

It isn't just fanboys. Tesla stock is astronomically overpriced based on the sales performance and outlook of what normal people consider its core business -- electric cars (and government credits). For investors, Tesla is *all* about the stuff that doesn't exist yet, like robotaxis.

Are they wrong to value Musk's promises for Tesla Motors so much? I think so, but it's a matter of opinion. If Tesla actually managed to make the advances in autonomous vehicle technology to make a real robotaxi service viable, I'd applaud that. But I suspect if Musk succeeds in creating a successful robotaxi business, Tesla will move on to focus on something other than that. Tesla for investors isn't about what it is doing now, it's about not missing out on the next big thing.

Comment Re:Biodiesel [Re:Synthetic fuels] (Score 1) 363

The real problem with biodiesel would be its impact on agriculture and food prices. Ethanol for fuel has driven global corn prices up, which is good for farmers but bad in places like Mexico where corn is a staple crop. Leaving aside the wildcat homebrewer types who collect restaurant waste to make biodiesel, the most suitable virgin feedstocks for biodiesel on an industrial scale are all food crops.

As for its technical shortcomings, if it even makes any economic sense at all then that's a problem for the chemists and chemical engineers. I suspect biodiesel for its potential environmental benefits wouldn't attract serious investment without some kind of mandate, which would be a really bad thing if you're making it from food crops like oil seeds or soybeans.

Comment Re:How is a 10% reduction in traffic a success? (Score 2) 111

I wonder at what rate they'll need to increase the pricing in order to maintain it. Ironically improved traffic may make driving more desirable.

They will have to increase the price eventually as demand for transport overall rises. The point of the pricing is to deter driving enough that the street network operates within its capacity limits; if driving becomes more desirable than status quo ante, they aren't charging enough and will have to raise prices to keep demand manageable.

Think of it this way: either way, traffic will reach some equilibrium. The question is, what is the limiting factor? If using the road is free, then the limiting factor is traffic congestion. If you widen some congested streets, the limiting factor is *still* congestion, so eventually a new equilibrium is found which features traffic jams with even more cars.

The only way to build your way out of this limit, is to add *so* much capacity to the street network that it far outstrips any conceivable demand. This works in a number of US cities, but they're small and have an extensive grid-based street network with few natural barriers like rivers. There is simply no way to retrofit such a street architecture into a city of 8.5 million people where land costs six million dollars an acre.

So imposing use fees is really is the only way to alleviate traffic for a major city like New York or London. This raises economic fairness issues, for sure, but if you want fairness, you can have everyone suffer, or you can provide everyone with better transportation alternatives, but not necessarily the same ones. Yes, the wealthy will be subsidizing the poor, but they themselves will also get rewards well worth the price.

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