Comment Normal users do not install OSes from scratch (Score 1) 137
I can guarantee you that the vast majority of wINDOWS/Mac users have never installed an OS from scratch on their machiNe. Sure, they'll go through a major upgrade of the same OS if they're prompted for one, but they absolutely will not download an ISO image and install that OS from scratch. Heck, if their OS install got borked, they'd either ask a tech friend/family member to fix it, take it to a computer shop for repair or simply bin it and buy a new machine. Sadly, most Slashdot users can't fathom this and think that the average user will move to Linux, when most of them have even barely heard about the OS in the first place.
The things that will happen at the EOL of Windows 10 are:
* Users keep running Windows 10 with no more patches, oblivious of the fact that the security risk of doing so ramps up over time.
* Users get the 1 year of extra patches (either pay $30 or backup stuff to OneDrive apparently), but still have the EOL of patches to deal with one year later (it's a one-time set of 1 year of patches).
* Users buy a new machine and will probably bin the old one (not realising it could be reused with a Linux distro).
* A tiny fraction of Windows users (1%) know about Linux and switch to it cold turkey (they would have to wipe Windows 10 because it would have EOLed).
So yes, I think we'll see a tiny movement (maybe +0.5% at best) in Linux market share, but the EOL of Windows 10, even with 200m+ machines not being able to run Windows 11, will more likely see a surge in landfill if you ask me.