Why ask whether china is eroding the lead; rather than whether the incumbents are maintaining it?

Maybe my faith is weak and if I were huffing the dumb money I'd understand; but it looks awfully like our boisterous little hypebeasts promised that, this time, unlike all the other times in 'AI' we could totally brute force our way to the AGI Omnissiah; briefly tried copium in the form of hoping that competitors would be intimidated by their capex(because there's basically a generation of VCs who think that failure to reach monopoly is indistinguishable from losing); and finally proceeded to speedrun commodification because it turns out that nobody actually had any plan for what would happen if this alley started looking visually impaired even after we plundered the entire internet to feed it.

I realize that it's more fun to focus on what the sinister chinese are doing than what our glorious golden boys are not doing; but let's do the latter anyway; especially since this is one area where you can't just please chinese factory slaves as an inherent price advantage. The guys mechanical-turking out 'training'/'classification' tasks will all go wherever to scrape up the cheapest labor available, then stiff them on promised payments; and (while the process is pretty porous) being not-china is definitely still the best way to get access to premium TSMC processes; and at least not-worse for most of the rest of the most interesting ones.

Either LLMs are fundamentally a technology where being the first mover is a dumb idea; or the 'leaders' are actively fucking it; because, unlike some of the cases involving rare earths mining or finding fast fashion sweatshop sites, this was theirs to lose.

I assume that there's a research OS somewhere that has discovered that this is much harder than it looks for anything nontrivial; quite possibly even worse than the problem that it is intended to cure; but looking at the increasingly elaborate constructs used when sudo is intended to be a granular delegation makes me wonder if the correct approach lies down the path of better permissions rather than ad-hoc lockdown logic.

There are some cases(eg. password-change or login tools often both reflect granularity limits in credential storage; and make reads or edits on your behalf to parts of files that you wouldn't be allowed to touch directly; but also do things like enforce complexity or age requirements that would require a really expansive view of 'permissions' to encompass) where the delegate program is handling nontrivial delegation logic on its own; but in a lot of instances it's hard to escape the impression that you are basically bodging on 'roles' that can't be or aren't normally expressed in object and device permissions by building carefully selectively broken tools.

I obviously don't blame sudo for that; its scope is letting you run a particular thing as someone else if the sudoers file allows it; but a lot of sudoers files might as well just say "there are no roles on this system between 'useless' and 'apocalyptic'"; and that feels like a permissions design problem.

Of note; probably not one to try to NT yourself out of; I'm not sure that you can build a sufficiently expressive set of permissions on classic UNIX style ones; but I've yet to see an NT-derived system that didn't boil down to 'admin-which-can-be-SYSTEM-at-a-whim'/'little people' regardless of the wacky NT ACL tricks you can get up to.

I'm curious if it's a case of the alternatives being tried and largely found to be worse; or if (along with a number of other OS design/architecture fights) the whole thing has mostly been pushed out of mainstream relevance by the degree to which you can just pretend everything inside a worker VM is basically at a homogeneous privilege level if you don't want to deal with it.

Yeah. Even here in Iceland, which isn't exactly a solar paradise, these would be really useful in some places. Though realistically your best option would be a mix of solar and wind.

I think we're forgetting the other two possibilities in this grid: "solar mine" and "strip farm".

The... trees?

If you're annoyed by jet skis, I would strongly recommend not living on the shores of Lake Havasu. Also, yes, it does take way more energy to get there than it does to jet ski around while you're there. Also, there are electric jet skis.

Do you drive long distances without stopping to get food and drinks?

If so: please stop that.

My language does reflect the new reality. By your own admission EVs are a minority.

Would you say that white people should be called "normal people" in front of a bunch of black people in the US, because the black people are a minority?

You talk about EVs like they're some obscure just-invented thing. They're not esoteric.

We're not talking weight, we're talking wind resistance.

You very much are talking both. For an extreme case, with freight trucks, aero is only like 1/3rd to 1/2 of aero losses. And they have aerodynamically awful shapes and are on very low rolling resistance tyres (though also have very heavy cargos... but also very large frontal areas).

For a passenger vehicle / truck towing a trailer, it will really depend a lot on the vehicle and trailer. It's not even some simple additive process, the aerodynamics is complex; it's actually possible to even lower Cd by towing a trailer in some cases (though not usually). And if by definition of the topic at hand (discussion was of a "big" trailer), then you're talking something like similar to the vehicle's mass (F-150 can tow up to 3 times its mass). Which - if on the same tyres - then doubling your mass equals doubling the rolling resistance. The ratio between rolling and aero resistance at highway speeds varies on speed, vehicle, tyres, weather, etc, but saying 60:40 aero:rolling is probably reasonable at normal "towing" speeds (somewhat lower than drivers without trailers) and averaging across weather conditions. Doubling the rolling drag increases the total drag by 40%. If your cross-section stays the same (again, this depends on the vehicle and the trailer), the Cd would need to rise by 67% to keep the ratio between rolling and aero the same. Which is a really big Cd rise. Now, if you're starting with a very aero vehicle and have a very unaero trailer, sure, you might pull that off and then some (but remember that it's not additive, the airflow is complex). Or if it's a low car and a high trailer, again, same story. But to treat rolling as negligible is just not right. Trailers add a lot of rolling drag, amounts that very much are relevant.

First off, "normal car", please. 20% of all new cars sold worldwide are EVs now. Update your language to reflect the new reality.

Secondly, that's just not true. Towing a heavy trailer with a truck will see its MPG drop by like half. The rule of thumb is that every 100 pounds you have a truck tow drops its fuel economy by about 2%. 2500lbs = 50%. That's a very rough rule, but it gives a sense of what's normal.

You won't be "hanging out" - your car will be ready to leave before you are. By the time you go in, use the restroom, buy a drink or a snack, and get back to your car, you'll have already added the range you need to go to the next site.

Unless you need to get really full because you're in a charging desert (charging slows near the upper end), it basically is this way already, if you have a fast-charging EV and a powerful charger. And speeds just keep rising.

You sure? Plugshare says Goffs has a 16kW NACS.

A Model 3, not towing anything (US ones don't come with a tow hitch, right?), arrive with 2%? I assume you're kidding. ABRP shows a 2024 Tesla Model 3 LR with 18" aero wheels leaving Barstow at 100% arrives at Needles at 55%. This is with seasonal weather enabled, and battery degradation of 5%. Switching to the SR, it arrives at 42%.

Let's see how bad conditions I have to choose to get it as low as you're saying. Let's try some random things.

SR: Going 10% over the speed limit. It's 50C (122F) - about 20F over the July average - and there's a 10 m/s wind (22 mph) - double the average - that the car is unlucky enough to be driving into head-on. That arrives with 1%

LR: Going 25% over the speed limit. It's 57C (135F) - as hot as the Death Valley record - and there's a 20 m/s wind (45 mph) - quadruple the average - that the car is again driving into head-on. That arrives with 4%.

Of course, if the SR just drops its speed to the speed limit it arrives with 10% remaining, and if the LR drops its speed to the speed limit, it arrives with a no-stress 27%. Even in these conditions. Both cars are, again, assumed to have 5% degradation.

So I'm not sure what you're talking about with your Model 3 claims. But I'll totally buy that towing something big and heavy will make that route non-viable. Towing dramatically increases vehicle energy consumption (not just EVs, either - all vehicles), like double the drain. Though I'm a bit surprised about jet skis being that much of an increase, as mentioned earlier.

I find that surprising - I wouldn't think a jet ski would reduce range that much (to 144mi). A big trailer like a caravan or large boat, sure, that'll double your energy consumption / halve your range, but jet skis are pretty small. What version of X do you have, what sort of range reduction do you see when towing a jet ski, and how does your speed impact it? I'm quite curious.

I would have suggested "use a 3rd party charger", but then I remembered you're in the US and 3rd party charging infrastructure sucks :P There's only a single 3rd party charger on that entire route and it's CCS1/ChaDeMo, not NACS. There's not even a slow charger, unless you count Goffs, which is a bit of a detour.

Just for fun I decided to add the fuel mass in. Let's say it averages 70% full corresponding to a mean fillup at 40% full (probably ~25-30% on the meter). The 2020 Camry had a 15,8 gal gas tank, while the 2025 has a 13 gal gas tank. Gasoline is about 6 lbs/gal (God I hate US units....), thus altogether the mean added weight for the 2020 Camry is 66lbs, and for the 2025 Camrys (Camries?) is 55lbs. Full tank is 95lbs and 78lbs, respectively. Putting it all together:

Camrys with empty tanks:
Toyota Camry 2020 LE (FWD, non-hybrid): 3,241 lbs, 7.9s 0-60
Toyota Camry 2020 XSE (AWD, non-hybrid): 3,395 lbs, 7.8s 0-60
Toyota Camry 2025 LE (FWD): 3,594 lbs, 6.9s 0-60
Toyota Camry 2025 XSE (AWD): 3,774 lbs, 6.8s 0-60

Camrys with mean tanks:
Toyota Camry 2020 LE (FWD, non-hybrid): 3,307 lbs, 7.9s 0-60
Toyota Camry 2020 XSE (AWD, non-hybrid): 3,461 lbs, 7.8s 0-60
Toyota Camry 2025 LE (FWD): 3,649 lbs, 6.9s 0-60
Toyota Camry 2025 XSE (AWD): 3,829 lbs, 6.8s 0-60

Camrys with full tanks:
Toyota Camry 2020 LE (FWD, non-hybrid): 3,336 lbs, 7.9s 0-60
Toyota Camry 2020 XSE (AWD, non-hybrid): 3,490 lbs, 7.8s 0-60
Toyota Camry 2025 LE (FWD): 3,672 lbs, 6.9s 0-60
Toyota Camry 2025 XSE (AWD): 3,852 lbs, 6.8s 0-60

Model 3s (more space than a Camry, vastly higher performance):
Tesla Model 3 2025 SR (RWD): 3,880 lbs, 4.6s 0-60
Tesla Model 3 2025 LR (AWD): 4,019 lbs, 4.2s 0-60
Tesla Model 3 2025 Performance (AWD): 4,080 lbs, 2.8s 0-60

Model Ys (far more space than a Camry, still vastly higher performance):
Tesla Model Y 2025 LR (RWD): 4,235 lbs, 5.6s 0-60
Tesla Model Y 2025 LR (AWD): 4,392 lbs, 4.6s 0-60
Tesla Model Y 2025 Performance (AWD): 4,392 lbs, 3.5s 0-60

Is the massive 1700 pound weight difference between EVs of the same class in the room with us right now?

The solar, for a farm of this size in this location, maybe $1,20/W installed to be a bit pessimistic? But hmm, there's no AC conversion or grid connection, so maybe more like $1/W? Again, probably pessimistic, but let's go with it. 11MW = $11M

Tesla's calculator for 38,5MWh of Megapacks is $9,7M. Reduce the cost to get Tesla's internal cost, but increase it back to an even $10M for installation.

So total we're probably in the ballpark of $20M. Divided across 168 stall, that puts our capital cost in the ballpark of $120k per stall. V4 Superchargers are $40k per stall, so that's a total of $160k.

Assuming 20% capacity factor, there's a mean solar production of 2,2MW (call it 2MW after losses). So there's a mean power per stall of 11,9kW (not mean charge speed, as most of the time, any given stall is idle) - let's round to 12kW. If the cost is say $0,45/kWh, then each stall is earning a mean of $5,40/hr, or ~$47k, yielding a mean payback time of 3,4y.

This is of course a gross oversimplification - doesn't include maintenance, construction costs of other things at the site, other site revenue (convenience stores / cafes / etc), on and on and on. And per the article they also have a 1,5MW grid link, so it's not truly offgrid (just *mainly* offgrid). But the ballpark number makes this look very viable.