I like Eric Raymond. As often as people are annoyed about Raymond's opinion and claiming authority on the Hacker culture, he still remains deep at heart a good analysis. I find that when he is honest in truly dissecting an issue he is more rigorous in his logic than a great german philosopher on a bout of depression. This is the quality of projection and reporting you would only get if you had an expert in the industry working for you only for the satisfaction of making your company successful. I'm only through half of the essay but this is what a strategic outlook report should look like if your experts weren't hedging, backtracking, spineless yes men more concerned with covering their ass than telling the whole story. Read the essay.