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Comment He didn't write this (Score 1) 48

He ordered minions to write it and he probably didn't even bother to read it before sending it to the publisher. My bet is he sketched an outline and set his minions to work. That's the way it was when I was in academia and why many chapters in books like these seem so disconnected -- each chapter was is assigned to a different person -- none of whom show up as authors.

Comment 3 Engines failed not 2 (Score 1) 101

The 787 also has a small jet engine in the tail that powers the "Auxiliary Power Unit" (APU). We know this failed too because the emergency power turbine would not have deployed if this were still providing power. During a 787 takeoff all fuel for all 3 engines comes from the central tank. The most likely cause is the central tank was contaminated with water. Out of roughly 10 million general aviation (non-commercial) take offs a year in the U.S., something like 4 end due to water contamination. The processes and procedures in commercial aviation are designed to make sure that this never happens to a commercial flight. Multiple grounds personnel would have had to have done their jobs improperly for water to wind up in the fuel of a commercial flight, but this seems like the most likely cause.

Comment Now that its money making time ... (Score 1) 38

It will be interesting to see if this company stays "good". For instance, they supported this effort: https://ancillary-proxy.atarimworker.io?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ebi.ac.uk%2Fabout%2Fne... . Will this continue, will everything they learn going forward that is not patentable become trade secrets?

Comment Re:Trump Destroying Dollar's Global Sentiment (Score 1) 243

Before Tariffs. The unlikely, but in the realm of possible, bottom for the dollar is a dollar buys 1/3 a euro by the end of Trump's term. It started at very close to 1:1 at the beginning of his term. The long bet right now by the world's financial experts as exhibited in the bond market is in 15 years the dollar will buy 2/3 a euro -- but that does not mean it will not be lower than this during Trump's term. The long bet is based on the relative strengths of the U.S. economy to the rest of the world as it is at the moment and comes from very conservative analysis from organizations like BBVA that likely underestimate the impact that Trump is going to have on the long term value of the dollar rather than overestimating these impacts. Trump's policies and chaos are radically transforming the world's economic landscape and it is impossible for financial models to account for radical changes like this.

Because the position the U.S. dollar has is due to events of the 1940s and 1950s and not things we have done recently or can be reproduced in this era (e.g. a World War that leaves the U.S. unscathed), much of the damage Trump is doing to the dollar will be permanent. Even after his term ends and assuming the U.S. reestablishes sane economic policy, there is no getting past the fact the U.S. elected someone like Trump -- and therefore it could happen again.

Comment Re:Trump Destroying Dollar's Global Sentiment (Score 1) 243

Nothing I said had anything to do with SNAP. I am pointing out that just because we produce crops in this country, does not mean that everyone will not starve. Where those crops go is controlled by the owners of those crops. During the Irish Potato Famine, the owners of the land exported all of the crops for profit letting the people who worked the fields starve. U.S. farmers, especially the corporate farmers will do this too if exporting becomes more profitable than selling to the U.S. market.

Comment Re:Trump Destroying Dollar's Global Sentiment (Score 2) 243

Agree, they are trading wistful desire for the past where the proletariat work in factories for actual destruction of the position of the U.S. in the world economy and the reduced purchasing power of our actual wages. It is completely messed up. What will happen is ConAgra is going to find it ever more profitable to export the crops grown in the U.S. Read up on why the Irish starved despite lush fields full of crops during the Irish Potato famine to see where this leads.

Comment Re:Deficit spending causes inflation (Score 1) 243

It is not as simple as "Deficit spending causes inflation". Deficit spending only leads to inflation if the demand for dollars outside the U.S. is less than the generated deficit. Since WWII there has been a high demand for dollars outside of the U.S. as it is the de-facto currency of world trade. Up until Trump's uneducated policies we have been able to trade our dollars for products produced outside the U.S. because the world wanted our dollars. Trump is not only reducing demand for dollars outside the U.S. but is also driving up the U.S. debt. Inflation is therefore going to happen, but it is not 1:1 with deficit spending, it is the result of multiple bad policies and grossly extending the debt.

Comment Trump Destroying Dollar's Global Sentiment (Score 3, Insightful) 243

The dollar achieved its lofty position in world finance because the U.S. came out of WWII unscathed as the world's greatest industrial power and the entire world in debt to the U.S. Today the U.S. is in debt to world and the U.S. is no longer the world's largest industrial economy. The value the dollar has today is based on momentum and sentiment and Trump is destroying it's sentiment. The dollar has been losing almost 2% of its value a month during Trump's current tenure and is down 15% since the beginning of his term. We have another 42 more months to go ...

To be clear, this is the goal of Project 2025. Implicit in their trade objectives is bring to an end to the unique position of the dollar in world finance. The Heritage Foundation and Rupert Murdoch believes that we will be better off if the dollar is one of the world's reserve currencies and not THE world's reserve currency. They believe this will bring back 1950's industrial power to the U.S. -- but the tradeoff they are making for us is that everything we import could cost as much as 3X more than it did before they destroyed the value of the dollar.

The value of the dollar is not only declining, but the interest on Treasuries is rising. As the value of the dollar declines, the fraction of the U.S. budget that goes to interest payments is simultaneously rising. Americans are all going to be significantly poorer in terms of the real purchasing power of our wages and responsible for ever increasing debt payments via our taxes. Americans will have to put more into the government to get less from it.

This is going to be Trump's legacy and he will be compared in future history books to Rome's Emperor Honorius and Greece's Alexander the Great (Who though briefly immensely expanding the Greek Empire also is the reason it totally collapsed)

Comment Re:Foxconn is Taiwanese (Score 1) 39

Foxconn has at least 5X more factories and Chinese employees than it has Taiwanese factories and employees. The Chinese employees in India are primarily more senior employees training up Indian employees. They may not be able to easily divert that many senior employees from the smaller Taiwanese cohort. Apple has foolishly allowed the expertise to manufacture their phones to be developed entirely external to the their company. Apple's market cap is 40X Foxconn's yet Apple can't manufacture anything in reality -- just draw pretty pictures of what they want manufactured,

Comment Azure is mature (Score 2) 60

Their current cloud tech plan is more of an "organizing features" plan than a "new tech" plan: https://ancillary-proxy.atarimworker.io?url=https%3A%2F%2Flearn.microsoft.com%2Fen... their current objectives need a lot less good engineers than past cycles. Two years ago they did not have in-house support for LLM model vectors, now they have multiple solutions. It does not look like they are planning on producing any technical "big rocks" in the next 6 months in Azure.

Comment Re:Panic! Run around with head on fire! B'GAWK! (Score 1) 135

Because temperature is a lagging indicator, an even better analogy is:

We are falling into a pit that is being dug out faster than we can fall and we are just reaching the depth that the pit reached in the 1950s (+2C). In another 100 years humans will experience the full impact of today's CO2 concentrations if we just stop increasing the levels today. This data is telling us how much farther we have to fall and is not a reflection of the temperatures we are seeing today.

Comment Re:Require Notarized Documents (Score 1) 57

Part of that "stupid easy" process is sitting through lame required training videos that tells the notary how many years in jail they face for performing fraudulent actions as a notary. This raises the moron level North Korea has to recruit -- The dumber their collaborators, the more likely they are to get caught. In addition, it becomes easier to forensically investigate the fraudulent notary, after all they registered themselves with the state and had a stamp mailed to an address. Just because the notary can break the law doesn't mean it is not an improvement over no humans in the loop at all.

Comment Require Notarized Documents (Score 1) 57

At very little inconvenience to anyone, hiring companies could require documents of remote workers to come to them via a Notary Public. At least then you know a human presented documents to another human. The states do not publish the public keys of their Notaries, so you have to look at the cert and then lookup the person in the given state's website to verify that the Notary is real. But this seems like a small effort to mitigate a big problem.

Comment "Hype" IS the economy (Score 2) 163

Robert Eberhart's observations apply to much more than the space industry. He is seeing a tree and he thinks his tree is aberrant. However the entire forest is aberrant which makes the issues he is seeing the norm, not the exception. The stock market is hype, social media is hype, AI is hype, the value of the dollar over the last 30-40 years has been mostly the result of sentiment and momentum. Value-based reasoning has been abandoned everywhere and the entire economy rests on "hype" which wall street refers to as "sentiment".

The tree that is the dollar and the lack of understanding of the precariousness of the value of the dollar worries me much more than exploding space tourists. This is is the biggest reason Trump's deranged approach to global affairs is so dangerous to the future of the country. The dollar is devaluing at close to 2% a month ... we have 42 more months of this administration.

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