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Comment Re:Just demonstrates that valuations are nonsense (Score 2) 49

It's like there are at least two layers of funny money accounting going on here.

First, you have the strange way that people equate market cap with value. There's no guarantee that holding shares with a current market value of $X will eventually return $X or more in dividend payments plus maybe some eventual disposal of assets, and these are usually the only tangible values involved. A market cap based on ludicrously high P/E ratio will be high, but trading those shares is like trading Bitcoin: it starts to look more like a Ponzi scheme than a genuine value-based investment.

Second, even the market cap is mostly theoretical here, because any shares held can't be freely traded on an open market. The asset is almost completely illiquid other than occasional anomalies like the secondary sale we're talking about. The first IPO of an AI unicorn could be the pin that bursts the bubble.

It's the difference between being one of the AI unicorns that doesn't actually make any real profit yet and is largely funded based on hype and hope, and being a supplier like Nvidia that is actually being paid real money (funded by all the AI investment) and has a P/E ratio that is high but not off-the-charts stupid.

Comment Supply and demand works every time (Score 1) 77

AI is only a very small part of it. Before, during, and immediately after COVID, tech companies were hiring like mad. Way more people than they needed, warehousing software engineers either just because or perhaps to try to keep them away from competitors. Seeing this high demand, more people went into software; the number of bachelors degrees awarded went up from ~64,000 in 2016 (when it was already on a rising trend) to ~108,000 in 2022.

Then we got higher interest rates, Musk proving you COULD run a service with far fewer people, and the Section 174 R&D amortization rules kicked in. Tech companies started cutting back hiring, even doing layoffs, at the same time a lot more graduates entered the market. Result: a shit hiring market for new grads. The Section 174 rules have mostly been reverted and interest rates are starting to drop, so the job market will probably get better. Prospective students are noting the shit hiring market now and (on the margins) choosing other majors, so in a few years we'll probably hear shrieking about shortages again. But for now, it sucks to be a CS grad.

Comment Re:Right (Score 1) 34

>In my state, the cops are legally required (and so) post public
>notices about where DUI checkpoints will be.

Speaking as an attorney who was still handling DUIs when checkpoints were in common use . . . announcing and pbulsihign ahead of time will make at most a marginal difference in the number of drunks heading through them.

You'll get a slight decrease in sober drivers who don't want the hassle, but drunk drivers just don't plan that well.

I recall my Criminal Procedure professor in law school commenting that he *really* wanted to get stopped in one and just sit there not speaking, staring straight ahead. Just to see what happened, as they couldn't possibly develop probable cause under the circumstances.

Comment Re:Graybeard approved (Score 1) 54

[*checks beard in mirror*]

oh, crap!

anyway, I both leaned unix on a pdp-11 at work and bought my first Mac in 1984.

Various Macs until I switched to a combination of unix and *nix as a graduate student, largel over LyX (largely a graphical front end to LaTeX at the time, as I was editing plenty of matrices full of integrals and such, so keyboard navigation was critical.

Then in 2008, back to a Mac laptop when it mugged me on clearance in Frys. I figured I could put FreeBSD (or maybe linux) on it, but it was a good enough *nix box, and it's battery management beat the daylights out of what I could get from FreeBSD or linux on a laptop.

And it's been Macs, largely used as *nix boxes, ever since, whether legal writing or developing software.

The bit on lower maintenance, less frequent replacement, and lower support costs goes back thirty years and more. And with some notable exceptions, the general quality of Apple hardware has been top tier, dating to when it was somewhat (but not hugely) better than #2 IBM.

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