Good explanation. BUT, i notice you stop at the point where its contested.
So you go toward a Service Economy. The money to keep the service economy comes from oil, and providing OEM with machines to build their gizmoz and widgets, and exporting that service. ASML is one of the more cited companies for this idea, and its a good reflection of reality.
And this is where your explanation stops. Nothing wrong with that.
So what is stopping the host nation providing the primary economy, from exporting to the service economy one? What is stopping the host country from going from making satellites and land survey equipment into competing for that Service with a host country advantage?
What if your area's only economic is.. tourism? What happens when there isn't air service for half a year, or your currency increases?
Remember: The service economy exchanges money for services, and that economy throughput still has to come from somewhere. Somewhere in a "Service Economy" is the real economy of plastics, food, metals, ceramics hydraulics that is keeping the service economy afloat.
If your entire economy is providing CAD software, what is stopping the buyer of those services to long term NOT buy those services?
But that isn't my argument against the service economy. My argument against the service economy is far simpler: If there is nowhere to work in the industry because its all abroad, how will you gain experience in the industry?
What if there is no factories, no investment into refinement? What if you are building cheap data centers due cheap electricity, but can't generate more value via using that electricity for refinement into gizmos?
I don't think the Chinese will deindustrialize. I think they might offload some to somewhere other in Asia, but i think they will try to keep as much possible.
I think the Chinese is currently in a phase where they via having a large primary resource and secondary refinement sector, are trying to build a synergy where its possible to keep it long term in China. At the end of the day any example company like Microsoft is only providing value at exchange, they do not produce.