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Comment Re:Around the same time as Fusion power. (Score 4, Insightful) 46

Fusion power is well-defined though. General intelligence isn't, we don't have an objective measurement by which we could say if something is generally intelligent or not, and if it's not, how far off it might be. The only thing we really have is the automatic assumption that we ourselves have to be generally intelligent because our ego demands it.

Comment Re:That assumes we have the will to use them (Score 1) 123

But no way on the second, the "and Russians know that". Russians really do think this is a clash between western and their civilisation, that this is a fight for survival and all that. They're convinced that if they loose the war the west won't just agree to let them off the hook, but they'll want a puppet west-controlled government installed that'll basically allow the western financial class to plunder apart the country. And frankly, I don't see any different realistic scenario either.

That's what the state propaganda in Russia says. But independent polling shows that the majority of the Russians just wanted the war to end already in 2024. I guess it's still officially a special military operation, but I don't think they are locking up people just for calling it a war anymore.

Russia also capitulated in WW1 after it started to fall apart due to the war by the way.

Comment Re:That assumes we have the will to use them (Score 1) 123

Russia has invaded Ukraine, there is no need for them to fight to the bitter end. All they need to do is to withdraw to end the war, and the Russian people know that.

Germany capitulated in WW1 because they could no longer afford to feed their people despite that, apart from the very opening weeks of 1914, no part of the war had been fought on German soil. Bombing was minimal at that point in time due to the primitive technology, but the blockade had ruined their economy and produced severe food shortages on the home front.

This is why Hitler was so adamant that Germany needed to take Ukraine before Moscow in 1941, to ensure they got access to enough food.

Comment Re:That assumes we have the will to use them (Score 5, Insightful) 123

I think you are delusional if you think that the USA had anything to do with whether Ukraine decided to fight for their independence and freedom or not. Ukraine fights because they do not want to become Russians.

The "never had a chance" shtick is also fairly hollow at this point when Russia's economy is at the point where only the war is keeping it afloat.

Russia's industrial growth has stopped, but the military industry is still growing meaning it's cannibalizing the civilian industry and it still can't keep up with the Russian losses. Meanwhile the Russian war chest (also called the Russian National Wealth Fund) has shrunk to a third of what it was, and the Russian state budget which assumes an oil price of $75 per barrel is looking at a budget crisis with the currently looming threat of a $50 per barrel price. Russian banks are in a very poor state.

If the war ends soon, there are some very serious economic shocks about to happen. And if if stretches out further, the Russian civilian economy might collapse under the weight of the demands of the war economy.

Comment Re:But (Score 1) 88

Yes I mean the obvious next step is for the US to put 100% tariffs on everything, then proceed to order massive amount of goods from around the world and hand it out to US citizens for free. Since for every dollar spent, the US would get a dollar from a foreign government, this is basically an endless free stuff machine.

Then if every other country does the same thing, no-one has to work anymore because everything is free! And here Star Trek thought we needed replicators to achieve this.

Comment Re:The entire world is gearing up (Score 4, Informative) 277

It all depends on how you calculate it, in 2023, in total amount of tariffs collected, measured in dollars or euros, the US collected more tariffs on imports from the EU that the EU did on imports from the US.

From https://ancillary-proxy.atarimworker.io?url=https%3A%2F%2Fec.europa.eu%2Fcommissio...
"For technical reasons, there is not one “absolute” figure for the average tariffs on EU-US trade, as this calculation can be done in a variety of ways which produce quite varied results. Nevertheless, considering the actual trade in goods between the EU and US, in practice the average tariff rate on both sides is approximately 1%. In 2023, the US collected approximately €7 billion of tariffs on EU exports, and the EU collected approximately €3 billion on US exports."

Comment Re: America has got to smartten up to the (Score 2) 277

There is no "the church" in America, there is a myriad of them. I think it's more likely that the states will strongly start to deviate on these topics, as the federal government weakens, ending up as one of the issues paving the way for the USA to eventually fragment.

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