That's not realistic. By the time an EV loses 60% of its range, the battery has probably caught fire from dendrites, not to mention that the rest of the car will have succumbed to rust twenty years earlier.
No, that's not true in the slightest.
Assuming a roughly linear degradation, if it is 70% at 450,000 miles, it will have lost 60% of its range at roughly 900,000 miles. How many cars do you know that aren't rust buckets at 900,000 miles?
That's not even remotely accurate. Most Tesla vehicles that are at 200k miles have around 85% of their original range, not 70% as you claim. You're literally doubling the amount of degradation compared with what happens in the real world. And given that you usually lose the first 5% within the first year, losing an additional 10% range over a decade and a half is really not that interesting.
I actually claimed 75, not 70- but that was a typo- I meant 85.
Sorry, misread. :-)
A 25% range loss really isn't a problem for more than maybe 1% of drivers. For daily commuting, most EV owners charge their cars at night every night, and add maybe 60 miles of range each time, so for a vehicle that is just used for commuting (the vast majority of cars, and ~100% of second vehicles in a household), the range loss has zero impact on them whatsoever.
That's just poppycock.
A full quarter loss of capacity is a big deal for all drivers.
Why do you think that? Most people don't live alone, and most households have more than one car. People tend to take long trips as a family, not as individuals. That means second and third vehicles in a household, statistically speaking, almost *never* get driven on long trips again unless the cars subsequently get traded in and become some other household's primary vehicle. So in practice, those vehicles are almost never driven more than about 60 miles. Even in the rare situations where this is not the case, such as a beater car that gets driven on a long daily commute, it is exceptionally rare for that number to significantly exceed one-hundred miles or thereabouts. So for a vehicle that starts with a 300-mile range, losing 25% of the range is just not a big deal for second and third automobiles. This is just common sense, and anyone arguing that this is wrong needs to show some data, because such claims are prima facie quite shocking.
Further, even the 25% is questionable. There are many, many, many complaints of batteries being at 80% capacity after 70k miles.
Yeah, sometimes hardware fails. There are many, many complaints of fuel pumps failing, of transmissions failing, etc., too. ICE cars have a whole lot more high-failure-rate components. Transmissions, in particular are the bane of ICE cars' existence, with the average lifespan being probably 150k miles or so, but some models routinely requiring multiple rebuilds within the first 100k miles, particularly if you do a lot of driving in hilly areas. That's one huge win with EVs; I'm pretty sure Porsche is the only company that puts any kind of transmission into their EVs. Everything else just has a fixed gearbox that will pretty much last forever.
What you are doing here, is trying to pretend a large fitness degradation does not exist in order to expand what you call the "lifetime" of the vehicle.
What I am doing is pointing out that for most vehicles, it doesn't matter. Some hard numbers:
- 33% of households have one car.
- 37% of households have two cars.
- 22% have three or more.
(source) For a very conservative estimate, if we treat "3 or more" as exactly three, we can compute the number of cars proportional to the number of primary cars by multiplying 33 * 1, 37 * 2, and 22 * 3, and adding these numbers together to get 173 cars per 92 households. When you divide 33 (the single-car households) by 173 (the total cars), you find that only 19% of all cars on the road are a family's primary vehicle, and 81% are a household's second or third car!
Even if you assume that everybody who owns a car will periodically take a long road trip, that still means that more than four out of every five cars on the road will likely never drive more than a double-digit-mile round trip.
So again, losing 25% of the car's range for those cars does not matter. At all. Most of them could lose 75% of their range and still be good enough for what they are used for.
But even better, long-distance travel by car tends to not be all that long-distance. The median round-trip distance for long-distances car trips is just 194 miles (source). So unless you're driving around a lot while you're at your destination, for a vehicle with a 300-mile-range, even a whopping 33% reduction range would not require even a single additional charging stop for *half* of all long-distance trips taken by car.
In fact, only about 10% of all long-distance trips are more than 500 miles, which means you might need one extra charging stop if your range dropped by 25%. Only 5% are more than 1000 miles, which means you might need two or more extra charging stops. And I can't find the statistic right now, but I saw a stat that something like 5% of city drivers take 90% or more of the long-distance trips.
Factor that in, and that means 95% of the 33 vehicles will rarely or never take a long-distance trip. That means that for a whopping ninety-nine percent of cars, losing 25% of their range does not matter. At all. Far from all drivers caring, if they actually look at their usage patterns and evaluate them rationally, you should find that 5% of drivers care, and they would care about that range loss for only about 1% of vehicles.
Your assumptions about how cars are used simply do not match up with objective reality. In fact, they're basically the exact opposite of what the actual numbers show. So again, you can feel free to disagree, but you'd better be prepared to support your opinions with numbers, or we're just going to write your opinion off as baseless.