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Comment Re:Correction (Score 1) 119

I wonder how much of that is the subscription model and how much is the expanding market.

My opinion is the two are inexorably tied together. The department I used to work for attended Adobe MAX annually going back to when it was Macromedia MAX. Over and over and over again, year after year, Adobe preached that the future was creativity. Every keynote. Every general session. Every presenter. Every year. And, to their credit, Adobe bet on that future of creativity and won. Without *that* bet at *that* point in time, there is likely far more competition and a deeply eroded market share. As a bonus for Adobe, their Creative Cloud decision also tackled both the piracy and "stale" license issues at the same time.

Comment Re:Correction (Score 3, Informative) 119

We've lost a lot of revenue since we went to this ridiculous subscription model...

Since Adobe (ADBE) is a public company, you can fact check this kind of claim. Show me in the chart where they've "lost a lot of revenue"...

ADBE Annual Revenue
Pre-2010 Max: $3.58B (2008)
2010: $3.80B
2011: $4.22B
2012: $4.40B (first real year of Creative Cloud)
2013: $4.06B
2014: $4.15B
2015: $4.80B
2016: $5.85B
2017: $7.30B
2018: $9.03B
2019: $11.17B
2020: $12.87B
2021: $15.78B

Additionally, Net Income is also up significantly from $774.67M in 2010 to $4.822B in 2021. You don't have to like Adobe, but it's very clear why they moved to a subscription model and it's very clear it's paid off for them quite well.

Comment Re:How can they lose money (Score 1) 132

They spent (an estimated) $12 million on a Super Bowl ad that also had a $3 million giveaway.

Their May Giveaway doled out $1 million. Their April Giveaway (same link) doled out $500k. March "Trading" Giveaway doled out $500k. March "New User" Giveaway doled out $500k.

The better question is probably: Given past/current business practices, how could they ever *not* lose money?

Comment Re:That's an odd purchase (Score 1) 201

With M&A, you're never paying for the current value; you're always paying for some version of a future value. What that exact future version looks like is what the M&A process is all about. For example, Microsoft might think Activision Blizzard's future earnings, etc. warrant a 10% premium over current value, whereas Activision Blizzard think it warrants a 50% premium. They'll negotiate to somewhere in the middle, but there's almost always a premium because both sides think there's future value to be had.

This is similar thinking to an individual investor. If you're putting money in the stock market -- whether through an individual stock, an index fund, or whatever -- you're anticipating future gains. Otherwise, you would put your money in a savings account. Your purchase alone implies, but doesn't guarantee, future gains, which implies future value that the asset doesn't currently have. Also, like M&A, the individual investor (purchaser) is thinking they can squeeze more value out of the asset than the seller. Whether or not that is true is how we end up with winners and losers in M&A... and individual investors.

Another thing you'll find with M&A is that when the purchase price is announced, the stock will almost immediately rise to the new premium price. ATVI closed with a market cap of $50.93B, but as soon as the deal was announced, the stock jumped roughly 25%, despite the markets being down 1.5-2.0%. Why? Because that puts the current market cap at roughly $64B. So, don't be surprised if the stock price/market cap stay around the deal level for the foreseeable future.

Finally, for a some additional perspective, Microsoft paid about a 50% premium ($26.2B) to purchase LinkedIn.

Comment Better Explanation: ZM (Score 4, Insightful) 78

Just click the "1Y" graph for ZM. 52-week high in mid-February 2021 while the universe was still heavily using technology to continue working through the pandemic and avoiding the early 2021 COVID surge. Then, a slow crawl downward as that has become less and less the current reality.

The real question is: what percentage of tech stocks have a current price that is higher than their January 2019 price? It would seem reasonable that you could find some overvalued (price higher than Jan 2019) and undervalued (price lower than Jan 2019) stocks based on that measure combined with how poorly/well the company has navigated the pandemic.

A near-record number of tech stocks have plunged by some 50% in an echo of the dot-com crash.

Which record? Based on their own graph, the record appears to be higher than 75% in 2009, so I don't see how "roughly four in every 10 companies" (actually less than 40%) is a near-record unless we're replacing journalism with hyperbole.

Comment What's the Problem? (Score 1) 64

They say: "Female CryptoPunks, and those with darker skin colorings, tend to sell for less than avatars with male traits or fair skin."

I say, "Females and people with darker skin colorings who want a CryptoPunk that looks like them, tend to spend less for avatars than white males."

From a consumer perspective, this completely reverses the "complexities of the real world," so what, exactly, is the problem?

Comment "Software Developer" is Considered Cybersecurity? (Score 3, Interesting) 75

Checking the linked "job-tracking database" for more info, it turns out they have a list of the "Top Cybersecurity Job Titles":
1. Cybersecurity Analyst
2. Cybersecurity Manager
3. Cybersecurity Consultant
4. Software Developer
5. Systems Engineer
6. Network Engineer
7. Penetration & Vulnerability Tester
8. Systems Administrator
9. Cybersecurity Specialist

So, let me fix that title for you: "America Tries to Fill 600,000 Vacant IT Positions." Of course, that doesn't quite have the right amount of fear-mongering, does it?

Comment Summer of the Shark (Score 2) 13

Sorry, I meant "Fall of the Space Debris"

https://ancillary-proxy.atarimworker.io?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.businessinsider.co...

Friday marked the second time the ISS had to change course in order to avoid debris this year, including once last month, when Russia swerved the station away from a piece of junk. In 2020, the orbiting laboratory had to dodge debris on three occasions. During its two decades orbiting Earth, the ISS has moved to avoid space junk at least 30 times.

20 years. 30 changes in course. 1.5 changes in course per year. So, we're pretty much right on pace (and down from last year).

Comment Re:Does US knows this? (Score 1) 67

More than a million barrels of oil are currently stored in its tanks.

The US produces more than 11.2 million barrels of crude oil a day[1], or more than 4 billion barrels per year. In other words, the US knows about the oil in the ship and they really don't give a... ship.

[1] https://ancillary-proxy.atarimworker.io?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.eia.gov%2Ftools%2Ffaqs...

Comment The Next Billion-Dollar Industry (Score 1) 24

The Jay-Z suit should serve as a warning to buyers and sellers of NFTs to make sure both sides know exactly what's being sold [...] "They need to be very careful up front, when the NFT is created, to ensure that it's a valid instrument and the creators had the rights they needed to what's being sold, so that it's not attacked down the road" [...] More litigation involving NFTs is likely, from lawsuits on behalf of consumers who didn't understand the nature of the rights they were acquiring

Here comes the NFT-equivalent of Mortgage Title Insurance in 3, 2, 1...

Of course, assigning a value to a tangible asset like a house is much easier than assigning a (real) value to an NFT, but you can bet the insurance companies are actively working on figuring it out.

Comment The Actual Research Results (Score 2) 221

Johns Hopkins Study: [bolding by me] "By contrast, closing cafeterias and playgrounds and the use of desk shields are associated with lower risk reductions (or even risk increases); however, this may reflect saturation effects because these are typically reported along with a high number of other measures." In other words, the "odds ratio of COVID-19–related outcomes" for using desk shields was only increased "compared to the reduction resulting from a generic mitigation measure." It was not measured compared to NO MITIGATION whatsoever, which the summary insinuates.

MA Study: The plexiglass dividers were identified as one of three "possible risk factor" categories through "observation of smoke," not measurement. The other categories were "occasions of mask removal at distances less than 6', primarily for eating and drinking" and "high-traffic areas (especially in two-way entry/egress areas) and shared offices." Further, this was at ONE SCHOOL! "Because no additional cases were identified in screening among staff at other schools, or among middle school students, all other schools in the district continued hybrid or in-person learning." Of the three categories, I wouldn't put my money on the plexiglass dividers being the most likely contributing factor... but I'd also want to confirm with actual measurements across all of the categories, not just assumptions, guessing, and "observation of smoke."

GA Study: The summary already includes the qualifier "compared with ventilation improvements and masking," but doesn't include a comparison to NO MITIGATION. Looking at the study, classrooms with "desks or tables with barriers" for "all classrooms" had 2.92 cases per 500 students enrolled. That was better than the following mitigation characteristics that were also measured: Optional mask requirements for teachers and staff members (4.42), Optional mask requirements for students (3.81), Flexible medical leave policies for teachers not offered (3.98), No ventilation improvements (4.19), Unknown ventilation improvements (2.95), Desks or tables separated by greater than/equal to 6 ft in some/no classrooms (3.09), Desks or tables separated by greater than/equal to 6 ft in all classrooms (3.02), and desks or tables with barriers in some/no classrooms (3.13). Based on those numbers, it's pretty safe to assume that desks or tables with barriers for all classrooms also performed better than no mitigation whatsoever, especially when you look at the rates in Private/Parochial/Independent schools (4.05) and Nonmetropolitan schools (3.41) that likely had little/no mitigation.

Cubicle Study [1] [bolding by me]: The summary just plain got this WRONG! "The patient with the index case of TB was working as chief of staff in a large commercial business office [...] Screening was extended on two occasions to take in the whole ground floor, reception and mezzanine level, and to include staff who transited the area on a regular basis [...] The workplace had an open-plan design with low-profile cubicle dividers and closed air conditioning. The practice of 'hot-desking' (where most staff are not allocated a permanent desk) involved about 75%–80% of the staff in the main office area. The patient with the index case of TB had a permanent desk." In the discussion: "In our case, there were several factors in the workplace design that may have contributed to transmission including a closed air-conditioning system, modern open-plan office design with low profile design of cubicle dividers that allows workers to see and communicate directly with their colleagues without standing, and the practice of 'hot desking'." It was LOW dividers (essentially, NO DIVIDERS) that contributed to the spread, not HIGH dividers.

British Research: Meta analysis. They got the Lessler (Johns Hopkins) study wrong. Their take on the Johns Hopkins study completely ignores that it was a comparison to other mitigation, not a comparison to NO mitigation: "Analysis from a very large US online survey of self-reported school-based mitigations in the US suggests that desk screens are associated with an increase in COVID-19 risk (Lessler et al 2021)." That's just NOT what that study concludes. Still, the British research does state, "Screens and barriers are likely to have benefits in reducing the risk of exposure to larger aerosols and droplets from exhaled breath when people are face to face and close together (less than 2m) (high confidence)." Like a lot of this, the best part of this article is the last bullet: "There remains a need for further research to look at the effectiveness of screens and barriers in real-world settings both from the perspective of direct mitigation of the virus in exhaled breath or managing behaviour."

[1] Non-paywalled: https://ancillary-proxy.atarimworker.io?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.mja.com.au%2Fjournal...

Comment More Than Climate Change (Score 5, Informative) 204

I understand that it's convenient (especially for California) to blame climate change for the water woes of the West, but the problem has existed for FAR longer than most (especially California) would care to believe. Water Education Colorado [1] has a good article about the 2019 Colorado River Drought Contingency Plan, which includes this "fun" fact (bolding by me):

As Eric Kuhn and John Fleck write in their new book, “Science Be Dammed: How Ignoring Inconvenient Science Drained the Colorado River,” even during compact negotiations in the 1920s, records showed the river’s annual flows were lower than the total 17.5 million acre-feet allocated to the seven states and Mexico. In fact, three different studies during the 1920s estimated natural river flows at Lee Ferry at between 14.3 million acre-feet and 16.1 million acre-feet. Planners chose to ignore that information, Fleck says, and with it, they ignored convincing evidence showing the basin regularly experienced long periods of drought.

In other words, the original compact allocated about 110-120% of the estimated natural river flows at the time... in the 1920s!

Now add in the fact that "in the lower basin, California, Nevada and Arizona have long overused their share of the river," [1] and "for many years, California has depended on surplus water [from Nevada's and Arizona's apportionment] to meet its water needs—and to supplement its basic apportionment of 4.4 million acre-feet per year" [2; from 2001] and you start to question, what exactly did we expect to happen?!

The water allocated exceeded the river flow FROM THE BEGINNING IN THE 1920s! The Lower Basin has overused their water for DECADES! And California has lived on (literally) borrowed water for DECADES! Anybody working with water in the West who didn't foresee what is currently transpiring is blind, incompetent, corrupt... or all three. And that's why they're all pointing the finger at the convenient villain of climate change instead of themselves.

[1] https://ancillary-proxy.atarimworker.io?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.watereducationcolo...
[2] https://ancillary-proxy.atarimworker.io?url=https%3A%2F%2Fweb.archive.org%2Fweb%2F20...

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