Phoenix is a re-fly of MPL using flight-spare MPL hardware. The difference is that since the spacecraft and instruments were already on the shelf, there was relatively more budget for the kind of investigation, review, and rework that the original mission should have had. As a result, we've identified and fixed a sobering number of fatal errors in the original design.
The disposition of the team at this time is "cautiously optimistic", which is more confidence than we had on MER at the same time. That said, there is always residual risk and the chance of just having a bad day.