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Comment Re:Shouldn't Need to File (Score 1) 277

It's pure politics. Anti-tax activists in the US, led by Grover Norquist, want to force individuals to file taxes to make paying taxes as painful as possible, rubbing the amount in your face. That way, individuals come to resent paying taxes and will fight harder to cut them.

Comment Re:NASA is basically going to shut down (Score 1) 46

SpaceX's first major customer was NASA, which supported SpaceX to design and build the Falcon-9 rocket and Dragon capsule for Space Station resupply (and, later, for crew launch).

And I wouldn't be surprised if Elon's new objective is to pull the ladder from underneath SpaceX so that NASA doesn't create or support any future competitors to SpaceX's newly established, effective monopoly on the US space industry.

Comment Makes Sense for a Limited Part of the US (Score 1) 152

This makes a lot of sense for a limited part of the United States, specifically the Northeast corridor running from DC to Boston. It's the one part of the country that Amtrak has robust service and is mostly competitive with both aircraft and cars. Yes, it's a limited part of the country, but it is also one of the most population dense and affluent parts of the United States. For example going from downtown Washington DC to lower Manhattan in New York City. By car, you theoretically can make it in about four hours (going up to eight depending on traffic) but with about $45 tolls. You can take Amtrak for ~$40 on the Regional, ~$100 on Acela if you book in advance for a 3-4 hour ride. If you try to fly, you're looking at $90 but it would require transportation to a suburban airport (say DCA) and then transportation from Queens or Newark into Manhattan (which can take another 30 to 60 minutes). Most people I know prefer to take the train although it can be more expensive because the demand is actually high.

Comment The Spotify Strategy (Score 4, Interesting) 81

The AI companies are trying to do the same thing Spotify did. It was near impossible for Spotify to identify every single copyright owner to negotiate and pay royalties for every single song - they had like 90% of the music negotiated and identified through large producers but had difficulty hunting down the remaining 10% of indie publishers and independent musicians. So they actually embraced a class action lawsuit brought forward by a couple musicians. The settlement created a court approved mechanism that lets them publish everything and then the artists have to come forward and collect. It's a great deal for Spotify since they no longer have to hunt for every single IP owner; now those artists have to come to them. From a Planet Money podcast that discussed it with UCLA law professor Xiyin Tang:

In the end, the class action didn't go to trial. The company and the folks who had songs in that tricky 10% ended up reaching a deal. Spotify agreed to pay them for all its past copyright infringements and set up a system to pay for streaming royalties going forward...

So if you think about the author's lawsuit from OpenAI's perspective, maybe the lawsuit isn't the worst thing. The company has used all of this copyrighted material, allegedly, hundreds of thousands of books. There is no good way to unfeed all of those books to their AI. But also, it would be a huge pain to track down every single author and work out a licensing deal for those books. So maybe this lawsuit will let them do it all in one fell swoop by negotiating with this handy group of thousands of authors who have collectively sued them.

Comment EV vs Gas Cost per Mile Numbers (Score 1) 174

As an EV driver, I can give you some quick math here. Assuming $4 per gallon at 25mpg, you're talking about 16 cents a mile. Meanwhile, when I charge my electric car at home, I'm paying about 3 cents per mile ($0.10 per kWh). Assuming you drive 10,000 miles per year, that's a good $1,300 in annual savings just for fuel/power. Now, I recognize that not everyone can charge at home, so let's use one of the most expensive chargers, Electrify America ($0.56 per kWh). There, for my car, it's about 15 cents a mile. So at that point, at best, about $100 annual savings, effectively a wash.

Comment GOOD in Long Run, Tragic in the Short (Score 1) 361

I agree that overall, controlling the total human population and maybe even shrinking it a bit (until we can expand beyond the Earth) is a good thing - there's no need for us to flirt with the disaster of overpopulation. However, we have the opposite problem that a lot of our key social structures and infrastructure were setup around the assumption of a growing, or at minimum a stable working population - things like social safety nets, medical and education, etc. As the population disproportionately becomes grayer, it destablizes those systems - there isn't enough tax base to support all those living on pensions and social security, there aren't enough doctors and medical professionals to take care of them, etc. While it will eventually solve itself as all those older people die out, the road there will be a massive human tragedy as society struggles to care for all its elderly.

Comment Missed Key Part of Article - the Why (Score 3, Informative) 44

The OP left out a key element of the article, that a lot of this is being driven by "patriotic consumption" with Chinese consumers actively prioritizing Chinese companies if they have a "good enough" equivalent product. This, combined with aggressive technology investment, IP theft, and a willingness to sell at massive losses (with government subsidies) to drive competition out business (dumping) spells out long term problems for Samsung, and indeed most non-Chinese consumer electronics providers in China.

Samsung's foldable phones did have the technological edge initially but the Chinese manufacturers have since caught up. Moreover, the geopolitical factors that have brought Samsung's overall share in the Chinese phone market to 0% have also dented its foldable share.

There's a trend of “patriotic consumption” in China as consumers actively prioritize buying from local Chinese companies. So even if Samsung's foldables may be better, a lot of customers would opt for Chinese foldable phones instead. That's something Samsung might find difficult to reverse since there's only so much it can do to convince consumers. As it stands, there may be more pain in store for Samsung in China.

Comment Correlation, but Essays, Extracurriculars Worse (Score 1) 84

Yes, there is a correlation between wealth and test scores, but the researchers in the same paper also noted that the remaining parts of the application, from essays to extracurricular activities are even more heavily correlated with wealth. It makes sense when you think about it: with wealth and connections, you and the schools you attend have the resources and connections to enable you to start new clubs, find and get those awesome internships, hire essay coaches, etc. These are much more subjective, so you can more easily buy your way in. The resource threshold to succeed in those areas is much higher than the resources to get proper test prep. Standardized tests, while flawed, are still the most meritocratic aspect. From a Harvard Gazette article:

Dr. David Deming: Also, if you get rid of the SAT, as many colleges have done, what you have left is things that are also related to wealth, probably even more so. Whether you can write a persuasive college essay, whether you can have the kinds of experiences that give you high ratings for extracurricular activities and leadership; those things are incredibly related to wealth.

My worry is that if we get rid of the SAT, you’re getting rid of the only way that a low-income student who’s academically talented has to distinguish themselves. Getting rid of the SAT means those people don’t have the opportunity to be noticed. I don’t think the SAT is perfect, but I think the problem isn’t the test. The problem is everything that happens before the test.

Comment Some good analysis on differences (Score 1) 194

There's some good analysis on differences between the Portuguese and Oregonian approaches. This NYT article for example noted some of the unique differences: for example, Portugal, while ending prison sentences for drug possession, still used a variety of other threats to "encourage" users to quit. Oregon effectively removed any consequences whatsoever. A quote given the firewall:

Drug addiction is an illness, but it is different from many other illnesses in a crucial respect. Most people with diabetes or cancer wish they could make their diseases disappear. Addicts have a more complex relationship with their disease. People with addiction often do not want treatment. They frequently think they have a handle on their drug use. That attitude is at the root of many people’s addictions.

“You need to answer the question: Why would people stop using an incredibly rewarding drug if there is no real consequence at all?” said Keith Humphreys, a drug policy expert at Stanford University.

A crucial part of Portugal’s change in 2000 was its attempt to nudge people to stop using drugs. The country did not simply decriminalize the substances. It also set up new incentives for seeking help: People caught using drugs can be sent to a special commission that tries to get them into free treatment. If drug users do not cooperate or they show serious problems, the commission can impose penalties, such as barring people from taking some jobs or visiting certain locations. It is a carrot-and-stick approach.

Oregon does not have much of a stick... As a result, people continue to use drugs, without an incentive to seek help. The implication here — that law enforcement matters for stopping addiction — might make some liberals uncomfortable. But the evidence strongly suggests that people with addiction often need a push to seek help. By ending the threat of arrest or prison time and not creating anything like Portugal’s commissions, Oregon was left without a push.

The article goes on to say that as Portugal started to cut funding to commissions and treatment, drug use started to grow again.

Comment Already Out in the Open for Years (Score 1) 166

He was to continue testifying in a defamation lawsuit he filed in Federal Court against Boeing - he already did a round of depositions with both Boeing and his own legal team. The actual production issues he blew the whistle has been in the public for five years with coverage by big media including the NY Times and the BBC.

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