I've been in the IT industry for a VERY long time. Before Linux, and before the IBM PC was even a thing (I "cut my teeth" doing Cobol/RPG programming on the TRS-80 back in the day). So, believe me when I say that an act of artificial obsolescence on this scale is truly unprecedented. Honestly, I expect that Microsoft will walk back this decision before the October deadline occurs for a number of reasons, number one of which is that it could spell the end of Microsoft's dominance in the OS market (and, consequently, other markets).
I believe that, at the very least, it will restart conversations (at every level of government) of the continued existence of Microsoft's monopoly power in the market. And rightfully so, if you think about it. When Microsoft was first brought to task for illegal use of this monopoly, it was in large part due to the bundling of Internet Explorer with its operating system. Here we are, I don't know how many years later and, if anything, it has become even MORE DIFFICULT to choose a different web browser with Windows 11. You literally have to change the default program for EVERY web document/technology separately! And FORGET about uninstalling it; that's not happening. To top it all off, they're using the same monopoly to bundle additional products like Office 365, OneDrive, Teams etc. It's as if they actually WON the previous monopoly case at this point!
Now, where I think this really matters (and Microsoft has not adequately considered the ramifications) is in government sectors at all levels. At a moment in time where the economy isn't doing that great, government budgets are tightening. At the same time, network security is of paramount importance (especially in the age of state actors!). I know of at least ONE major university (the one in my area) that has a state mandate wherein ALL state government-owned systems must be able to receive security updates on a timely basis. Otherwise, they MUST be decommissioned. I'm sure it's similar at the federal level. I hate to think about how this will affect K12 schools. These institutions don't have the budgets to replace such a substantial number of systems that they rely on daily in order to function, all at the whim of a single company. Put simply: yes, Microsoft is still a monopoly that is abusing its monopoly power.
Back in 2015, Microsoft declared Windows 10 to be "the last version of Windows." People, and governments, were fine with it. Well 10 years later, and this is the EXACT OPPOSITE of that. Part of the reason for this is because, these days, publicly-traded companies don't think long-term. They care about earnings conference calls and stock prices. Can we really trust almost ALL of our modern IT infrastructure to ONE of these companies?
There's a reason why some government entities (especially in Germany) are switching to Linux and open-source solutions, and it's all about reducing vendor lock-in. Should this artificial "end-of-life" actually come to pass with Windows 10, I think we'll be seeing a much bigger uptick in this trend. I can imagine a world where entire nations standardize on Debian, Ubuntu or some other desktop Linux distribution or derivative. How ironic would it be if, as a result of one disastrous decision by Microsoft, the entire state of California mandated that ALL government PCs must run on Cali Linux (a standardized desktop Debian derivative that I just made up)? In this utopia, I can imagine a state agency that oversees and funds the development of this derivative (with some funding going to Debian and some other open source projects of course). The same agency could invite companies to submit bids for contracted support for the various government agencies (after all, "if you build it, they will come!").
Surely, Satya Nadella cannot be this dumb.