Comment Back off for a larger picture, and... (Score 5, Interesting) 51
pay attention to the players and some history.
There are some large and powerful companies who, over the decades, have become very dependent upon cost-plus contacts for large government projects that the congress gets all animated about, and upon which congress is willing to overlook massive cost overruns while firing the money cannon. It happens on big defense projects and big space projects where "national security" (the claim, not necessarily the reality) and "national prestige" are supposedly on the line.
With the Shuttle program ended, those contractors and the congress intended the work (and jobs, and pork) be kept with the same big aerospace firms and thus were Orion and the SLS launch vehicle born at MASSIVE cost to the taxpayers and with INSANE schedule slips. This was largely justified as a matter of national prestige. With the ISS about to end, and the currently-supported-by-both-political-parties goal of a return to the Moon and and enduring presence there, the big aerospace vendors were all happy to line-up for another high-profile set of contracts that they would under-bid and then drag-out for YEARS of delays and massively inflate the costs on... until some bad stuff (from their perspective) which they did not anticipate happened...
SpaceX showed up in the launch market and did what they'd never been willing to do: make launched much cheaper by re-using boosters (Something NOBODY who is sane and who has cost-plus contracts would ever do). Then, after making Falcon9 the most frequent flyer, SpaceX started working on its Mars rocket and offered is up as a candidate in the lunar project.
When NASA opened-up the bidding for a lunar lander, the big boys bid high (as always) and SpaceX bid low (since they were offering a dumbed-down version of their Mars lander which they were independently developing and funding anyway) and with Congress not sufficiently prepped for panic-spending NASA found that with its limited funds already largely consumed by Boeing and LockMart on SLS and Orion, it could only afford the SpaceX option. SpaceX thus won the Lunar lander contract. After the award, the big boys applied the appropriate bribes (err... "campaign contributions") and got congress to pony-up more money and force NASA to award a contract for a second lander - which went to a team including some of the big firms but lead by Blue Origin.
Other space startups appeared. RocketLab started launching payloads into orbit and became quite reliable, before starting development of a fully reusable medium lifter (Neutron). Sierra was working on Dream Chaser (Not a lunar thing, but an upstart space thing). Relativity Space came along with 3D printed rockets; not so successful yet, but promising to make rockets much cheaper and sort of printed-on-demand. Firefly Aerospace built and flew a successful small uncrewed lunar lander (a modern version of the old Surveyor probes). Even Amazon (yeah, I know, Blue Origin, same dude, different shop) got into things with the New Glenn. Everybody knows SpaceX, Blue, and Firefly will be able to reliably land on the moon very soon and others will follow...they just need time.
All of this means that, if one simply waits a while, a return to the Moon will likely be MUCH cheaper, and possible using "newspace" companies whose business models are not dependent upon cost-plus contracts obtained by low-bidding and lobbying followed by ballooning schedules and prices. If you are from the old aerospace defense contractor realm, this is a serious problem. You want those big juicy government contracts, so you need them to be issued NOW, before people have the time to think that by being a little patient there will be a bunch of low-cost "hungry" and eager providers. THAT is a HUGE problem because it could lead to MULTIPLE inexpensive vendors providing regular reliable commercial flights to and from the Moon, and THAT might cause the public (and anybody in congress not getting "campaign contributions") to ask much larger questions about all big Aerospace contracts and why the huge expensive firms should always be the presumed contract winners...Who knows? eventually people might start asking "if those new cheap firms can reliably do moon flights, why can't they make fighter jets and bombers?" and other VERY dangerous questions.
The solution is clear. [1] Start stoking the fires of "national prestige" and a panic that China might get there first (as though Apollo never happened - which for many people it seems it did not because it happened and then got cancelled long before they were born). [2] Hire former NASA administrators and have them attack any of the newer vendors that seems a threat (see: Bridenstine and Bolden). Get them to claim that the vendors with the current contacts (SpaceX and Blue) aren't going to get there fast enough. It matters not that both will be ready soon and that nothing bad would actually happen if China caught up with 1969's America (boots&flags for HOURS during Lunar day and near the Lunar equator) a few months before 2025's America way out-performs both historical moments (with permanent presence near the Lunar pole with the option to explore everywhere else). This effort by "old space" to interfere with "new space" on the lunar contracts seems to be aided by the Transportation Secretary who is currently also serving as acting administrator of NASA and seems to like it and want to fold NASA into the Department of Transportation. He appears, as many such administrators of both parties, to have learned just enough about the agencies he oversees to become dangerous but not enough to become wise. He's probably being told he can improve his position with his boss (The President) by getting him a sooner successful Moon landing, and is unaware that the "old space" vendors would only deliver huge delays and cost overruns, and unlike Blue and SpaceX, the "old space" vendors have not even BEGUN to even prep bids, let alone actually start hardware development. Those old vendors do not care if Duffy falls flat on his face - they just need him to open up the contracts and wrestle the deals away from "new space" before the public sees success on the horizon.
Whatever your feelings about the Bad Orange Man, do not get distracted. He'd surely like a successful Moon landing on his watch, but it's obviously not the top thing on his agenda, and if it does not happen, he'll certainly do what all carnival barkers do: draw the public's attention to something else that makes him look better. He's almost certainly not micro-managing this one - the only US President who ever took NASA seriously enough to concentrate upon it was JFK.
This fight has NOTHING to do with technological abilities, or space, or the Moon, or even China. It's all about government contracts, workforces, unions, corporate profits, campaign cash, etc.