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Comment Re:Why are people calling these things âoepre (Score 1) 39

I said it's not gambling if you have a real-world stake in an outcome. If you have no stake, then yeah, it's quite possibly just gambling. Or at best, speculating, like what many traders do in options and futures contracts.

To me, gambling applies to events whose outcome nobody can have any stake in, like the roll of dice on a crap table. Even for sporting events, someone can have a stake, be it the arena-owners, food-vendors, or other peripheral businesses who might see the season cut short if a team is knocked out of the playoffs, for example.

I'm not saying Kalshi and other polymarket sites are the best place to find a hedge to protect a financial position. (They probably aren't.) I'm saying they could be used for such purposes.

And having a stake in an outcome does not mean you control the outcome. If that were the case, then yes, the game would be rigged and you shouldn't be allowed to trade in a polymarket -- at least not without the kinds of strict regulations that apply to insider traders of company stocks and other financial instruments.

Comment Re:Why are people calling these things âoepre (Score 1) 39

They're not gambling if you have a real-world stake in an outcome addressed by one of these markets. Sports, elections, and world affairs in particular can have financial consequences to certain businesses. Hedging against outcomes detrimental to your business is not unlike buying insurance.

The options and futures markets have provided a way to trade on such outcomes, in one form or another, for centuries, perhaps longer.

Future real-world events can have a much more tangible effect on one's business than the roll of dice on a crap table.

Comment Re:Mixed feelings.. (Score 1) 95

so he can pay people he thinks were wronged under Biden

I think the word is "claims" - rewarding people who backed him and his "I wuz robbed" at a cost to themselves.

The only relevant difference between thinks and claims is whether or not he [Trump] vocalized his thoughts. And yeah, he does that a lot.

Comment Re:I'm not enthusiastic (Score 1) 68

Between Austin Powers and Jason Bourne, both ends of the Bond spectrum have been done, and done better.

You do have a point. The suave self-parody of Austin Powers and the ruthless assassin of Jason Bourne are good, but owe credit to the Bond franchise. (Arguably Austin Powers also builds on Our Man Flint.)

However, it's interesting to note that there are examples of the influence going in the other direction, specifically from Indiana Jones. Before Raiders of the Lost Ark the film-version of Bond didn't face perils at nearly the same frequency in a single movie as he did after.

Comment Re:I'm available (Score 1) 68

I can't recall a single Bond actor who looked like Ian Fleming's sketch. (Note the spelling of his last name.)

In any case, Ian Fleming is dead. He is no more. He has ceased to be. He's expired and gone to meet his maker. He's a stiff: bereft of life, he rests in peace. His metabolic processes are now history. He's off the twig. He's kicked the bucket, he's shuffled off his mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleeding choir invisible! He is an ex-Ian-Fleming!

And that means it's fair game to alter his vision, if you can sell it to Amazon MGM Studios, who now control the character. Sure, you want to keep the basics, but his specific appearance is not one of them. What is basic is that he's a suave spy and ruthless killer who combats mega-evil crimelords and their henchmen/henchwomen.

Comment Re:I'm available (Score 1) 68

And with a bit of coaching, I could pull of an appropriate accent.

That's going to trip you up.

A while ago, I heard a discussion about the possibility of Denzel Washington playing James Bond. The consensus was that he would do a great job, but there's one small problem: he's not British.

Too bad Sir Idris Elba is too old now. A Bond of colour would have been refreshing.

Comment Re:Good (Score 1) 65

The problem with the permit vs implies is if it only permits then certain parts of a theory are not testable. The solution explicitly requires those things to exist in order to fit into the rest of the physics models we have.

Sorry, no. A theory is testable if there is a way to show it's wrong. A theory may be consistent with a particular thing existing but that doesn't mean a lack of evidence for such a thing disproves the theory. I mentioned tachyons as an example.

And you mentioned white holes. They are a counter-example to your claim that "[a] solution explicitly requires those things to exist in order to fit into the rest of the physics models we have." Not only do they not need to exist in order to validate Einstein's theory, their existence would violate the laws of thermodynamics. They are considered to be a non-physical solution to Einstein's equations.

are [tachyons] permitted or are they explicitly required to exist to make the rest of the model work?

Permitted, not required. Nobody has observed tachyons, and yet special relativity has overwhelming support from experimental evidence.

Implying the existence of something I think is a better phrase

Okay, I'll buy that. But you go on...

since in many cases if you remove that element from our universe then the model ceases to make sense.

Well ... mostly no. It depends on how crucial that "element" is to the theory. Tachyons are permitted under special relativity but have not been observed, and yet Einstein's theory of special relativity survives just fine without them.

Perhaps an example of what you mean would be the luminiferous aether, proposed to explain how light can propagate in a vacuum. The Michelson-Morley experiment put the dagger in that model. The aether didn't exist, therefore the aether theory was wrong.

Now maybe there's another answer for why we don't see something, e.g. it existed at some point in time (maybe nano seconds after the big bang) and disappeared, but to say something is permitted is the wrong approach. To validate a model we go searching for that thing.

Or look for forensic evidence that it existed in the past. And saying something is "permitted" is the first step towards looking for it, so it is not the "wrong" approach. You may or may not find it, and that may or may not invalidate the theory, depending on how important that element of the theory is.

There are cases where a particle was predicted long before it was ever observed, because it appear to be "required" rather than just "permitted." The neutrino, for example: it was needed to conserve angular momentum in nuclear reactions. Neutrinos were extremely difficult to detect, hence the 26-year gap between Wolfgang Pauli's proposal in 1930 and their detection in 1956. Arguably, there would have been a serious problem in nuclear physics if it had never been found.

You misunderstood the point I was making in my post. I'm all for those models not making sense (to me), god knows many have been proven correct even in the face of extreme criticism even among physicists at the time they were proposed. I'm just pointing out to the OP that something not "feeling right" is pretty much par for the course in physical models of the universe, both among lay people and among physicists themselves.

A theory or model "not feeling right" is often the stimulus to look for better ones. But usually that stimulus comes from evidence that a theory is wrong, either in a specific situation or in general.

Comment Re:Good (Score 1) 65

"Computationally intractable?" I doubt it. I'm not a relativist or cosmologist, but

You should have stopped posting right there.

Something that is "computationally intractable" strikes me as something that has so many combinatorial cases to address that it simply cannot be undertaken with computational resources currently available to humanity.

Calculating the evolution of the universe does not strike me as having that nature. Many of the models for this evolution are exotic but not beyond computer simulation. People have tried to perform computations to determine the evolution of the universe with these models, based on various initial conditions. Adding the effect of gravitational time-dilation (if they havn't already) does not seem to be an onerous task. That was my point.

I welcome anyone who actually does what I just described, and who has something constructive to add, to chime in here.

Comment Re:Good (Score 3, Interesting) 65

Disclosure: IAAP but I don't work in this field. I learn about it through books that explain it to the general public.

My understanding is that dark matter has some evidence for its existence. Specifically, it has been observed to be non-uniform, present in clumps and strands throughout the universe.

Dark energy, on the other hand, appears to be highly uniform(*) and the evidence for its existence is the acceleration of the expansion of the universe. In order to account for that role, it needs to comprise the vast majority of matter/energy in the universe. And that's where I scratch my chin and wonder whether it is a contriviance -- whether some reworking of our understanding of gravity could offer a different explanation. Yes, I know that dark energy can be explained with the lambda factor in Einstein's equations, and at some point, I suppose I might need to accept that a "contriviance" really is a law of nature.

(*) Recent observations have challeneged this assumption, and as I understand it, would require Einstein's lambda to be replaced with something else.

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