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Comment Re: For people wondering why they do this (Score 0) 73

The anti-fluoride and anti-vaxx movements have always been on the Democrat side. Under Trump, those anti-science conspiracies are being embraced by Republicans as well.

This is, once again, a reminder that Trump and MAGA are not conservative movements. Anti-science positions are not, and were never, solely the domain of one party. They just chose *different* anti-science positions. The Republican who believes that climate change isn't real is applying the same kind of wrongthink as the Democrat who believes that alkaline water cures cancer.

Comment Re:Incentives, not regulation (Score 1) 100

According to data I found online, the average paid by CA residents is 30 cents per kWh, so if you're paying 12.9 cents, then the right phrase is "less than half". Though of course, the need for heating/cooling between the temperate Bay Area and the more extreme conditions in Texas is different, and usage obviously affects the bill, but we're talking about rates.

Here in Utah I would also normally pay about 13 cents per kWh. I'm actually on a TOU plan which is 5 cents off-peak and 25 cents on-peak, with peak being 3 PM to 8 PM on weekdays. I have an EV so I configure my charger to only operate during off-peak hours and this saves me quite a bit. In the summer I also set my A/C schedule to cool the house a few extra degrees just before 3 PM so it mostly doesn't have to turn on until the peak hours end.

Comment Re:Incentives, not regulation (Score 1) 100

Texas provide HUGE incentives through ERCOT's pricing structure -- they just make sure the buyers pay not the state. The batteries benefit from the fact that when they provide power during Texas' routine "power emergencies" they get to charge 30X the going rate for electricity. This is the same rate structure that allows Texas' crypto miners to turn off one hour a day and come out ahead on their electric bill for the day because they get a 30X credit for the hour they are off. Gouging the power consumers is a feature of the ERCOT grid for the power providers -- even the green providers.

Is "gouging" the right word? Residential consumers in TX pay half what those in CA do. And the massive price spikes generally only apply to wholesale buyers. I don't think most residential users even have the option of a variable-rate plan.

Comment Re:Good luck with that (Score 1) 71

Yep. I've seen this in Canada for my whole life... nothing to do with AI... Employers have bleated that there isn't enough "qualified" potential hires... but they wouldn't put a dime into training. Yet, they never saw how that works. I thought it was a specific failing of Canadian ... lets call them "business leaders"... :-)

In my experience, qualification has little to do with anything that can be trained. People with the right kind of brain can and will learn whatever is needed to do the job. Those without will never be very effective no matter how much you spend on training. The top tier software engineering companies don't really even bother asking you what you know because trainable knowledge doesn't matter. Instead, they focus on asking you to solve problems, live, because while problem-solving is to some degree a teachable skill, being really good at it is mostly about native ability.

Personally, in my 35-year career as a software engineer, I've rarely found training to be useful, and when it is useful it's not training in software development tools or processes, it's training in things related to the business the software is supporting. What I have always found useful is books. If my employer will buy me whatever books I need, I can learn approximately anything. Different people learn in different ways, so perhaps that's just me... but my experience is that all the really good software engineers I've ever worked with were the same.

Comment Re:There seems to be a pattern here... (Score 1) 132

They did iterative for landing but they certainly put the work in a more traditional way on Dragon and F9/FH launching.

Not until they started working on man-rating. The early development F9 followed the same iterative fail-fast model, though obviously with a lot less global attention. The painstaking detail for SS/SH will have to come, but can and should be deferred until they have platform that has been proven basically reliable.

Comment Re:There seems to be a pattern here... (Score 1) 132

The Space Shuttle presumably went through the sort of long, detailed engineering you describe, and yet two of them were still lost with crew on board. It's not exactly a silver bullet, either.

Compare to Falcon 9, which used the iterative / fail-fast process... and is the safest orbital rocket ever built, as well as the cheapest.

Comment Re:How many "failures" can they afford? (Score 2) 132

However, at some point if the failures continue it will put the program in jeopardy because you cannot keep producing and blowing up expensive hardware indefinitely even when you do learn a lot.

Of course you can - with someone else's money.

Starship development is primarily funded by SpaceX. SpaceX has some money from a NASA moon lander contract, but it's not that much relative to the cost of developing a large orbital rocket system. If/when they meet all of the milestones, they'll be paid $4B. So far they've only received a few hundred million -- probably not enough to pay for even one Starship test flight.

SpaceX is private so we don't know a lot about its finances, but it appears to be quite profitable, between the Falcon9-based launch business and (especially) Starlink. That is what is paying for the Starship development, and it seems likely that SpaceX can continue funding the development indefinitely -- though obviously if at some point it becomes clear that it's not going to work, they'll cut their losses and try something else.

Comment Re:Antitrust is not involved here (Score 1) 44

Did I say anything about being illegal or VMWare's fault or similar? I just stated that VMWare is a de facto monopoly in the virtualization business.

And that means that VMWare should fall under monopoly regulations, and act with care when it comes to price hikes and contract re-negotiation.

Monopolies aren't required to follow any particular rules around price hikes or contract re-negotiation -- not unless they're trying to insert provisions restricting use of competing products. It's not illegal to exploit your monopoly to maximize revenue from that product, it's only illegal to use the monopoly position to build or maintain market share in a different product space, or to prevent competitors in that space from competing. On the contrary VMWare's actions are turbocharging competition in the hypervisor space by making all of their customers desperate to find alternatives.

Comment Re:The plan (Score 1) 191

The next dem president will roll back 99 percent of Trumps actions on day 1, because its all executive order stuff.

When you're smashing your hand with a hammer you can stop, but healing the broken bones takes a lot of time. Rescinding the executive orders will be easy, sure, but the stuff that's broken won't be repaired quickly or easily, especially because the world sees that we elected Trump not once but twice, and it's going to be tough to convince them we won't elect someone like Trump again. Our allies and trading partners will remain suspicious of us, for good reason. The researchers, once moved, won't easily come back. Repairing the damage DOGE has done will take a decade or more. And so on.

Like many people you look at all the bad that didn't happen during Trump's first term and assume his second will be the same, but that's some combination of ignorance and wishful thinking. It was obvious even before the election that if the Mad King won this time would be different because he would be surrounded by obsequious yes men rather than competent staffers picked by the old guard GOP, and four months in it's absolutely undeniable.

I don't think Trump will destroy the country. I think the system has enough guard rails to prevent him from ending democracy (though he'd clearly like to do exactly that), and as long as we retain democracy the system will eventually be able to error-correct. But that just means we'll stop swinging the hammer, it does not mean that the damage already done will be miraculously repaired.

Comment Re:The plan (Score 1) 191

Business and investment are gonna mostly happen as usual.

Except they're not.

On the business side, every survey of business leaders as well as every other indicator of capital investment shows that they're hunkering down: deferring or even cancelling any plans to expand, freezing hiring (if not actively working to reduce staff), etc. Good businesspeople can deal with almost any economic and regulatory climate you throw at them, but the one thing they need is predictability. Business is all about planning, and you can't make plans in the fact of chaos.

On the investment side, yeah, Wall Street seems surprisingly optimistic, but if you look at bond markets you see a different story. The most concerning part of it is that normally money floats back and forth between stocks and bonds, depending on the economic conditions. When stocks fall, the money flows into bonds and their prices rise (causing their yields to fall -- which is good when the government needs to borrow, which is always). When stocks rise, the money flows out of bonds and back into stocks. But this isn't happening so much right now. Equity and bond prices are falling together (and bond aren't recovering when stocks do).

How can that happen? It can happen when capital is fleeing the country. Investors are pulling their money out of the US, equities and bonds both, likely sending it overseas.

On the other hand, main street is getting lightly hammered.

Indeed.

Trump will finish out his 4 years. Looking back, we will realize that he accomplished and changed surprisingly little.

Unless he keels over soon and Vance proves to be more rational, I doubt it. Actually, I think you're overly optimistic even if that happens today, and even if Vance proves to be an outstanding president.

Trump has already irreparably damaged our economic and military alliances around the world. The world was sort of okay with trusting us again after Trump lost in 2020, but November 2024 proved that America is no longer a trustworthy ally or trade partner. The world's alliances and trade networks are treating us as damage and working to route around us.

DOGE has significantly gutted many US agencies, and it's going to take a very long time to rebuild that lost state capacity. We haven't yet seen the impacts of that foolishness yet, in part because state capacity was already pretty low (on a per capita basis, the federal government had reached a nearly century low), but we will.

Trump's budgetary plans will add $6T+ to the debt, at the same time he's pushing up bond yields, making it more expensive to finance the debt.

I'm slightly more optimistic that we can reverse Trump's kleptocratic moves. SCOTUS has made sure we'll never be able to hold him or any future president accountable for taking massive bribes, but maybe we can keep the rest of the government from following suit. It's not a given by any means, though.

Finally, Trump's actions on immigration and science funding are already causing likely-irreversible damage to our research base. US researchers are applying overseas and foreign researchers are not applying to come to the US. Long-term studies have been shut down. For example, I saw that a large-scale (~190k participants) long-term (~40 years so far) longitudinal study of breast cancer has been shut down. If funding is restored quickly, that can be restarted. If it isn't restored until 2029, there will be a significant gap in the data. But that one at least can probably be restarted. In other cases researchers or facilities may well be gone.

The US' post-WWII global dominance was built on two primary foundations: Technological progress and trade, with foreign aid playing a significant supporting role. Trump has done an incredible amount of damage to all three in just four months in office, enough that we won't recover quickly, and will never recover all of what we've lost. If he gets to continue thrashing about for four years, it's gonna be pretty bad.

Comment Re:Question about manufacturing in America (Score 1) 124

Why are so many people here convinced we should no make anything in the country anymore?

I don't think "should" is the correct term, here: I think "can" is more appropriate. Companies, under the whip of Wall Street, demand monstrous quarterly profits, while American workers demand monstrous paychecks to fund their ever increasing standard of living. I mean, are you really even a man if you don't have a $100k boosted truck, towing a boat, or an RV - or both - and a mansion to drive home to? Well, generally, you can't have both monstrous profits and monstrous paychecks. So if you want to bring manufacturing back to America, you have to reduce costs - particularly labor - to justify the effort, or manufacturers won't bother. Lower labor cost and resulting increased profit is why manufacturing left in the first place, particularly under Reagan. Note that I'm not even touching environmental issues, here: just labor. So, if manufacturing could be done here, it probably would.

There's an incorrect assumption underlying this whole argument: The assumption that the US is not a manufacturer. The truth is that the US, with 4% of the world's population, is the world's second largest manufacturer. That's actually not bad at all.

Maybe what people want is for America to reclaim its spot as the world's #1 manufacturer, a distinction we held for much of the 20th century. If so, that's fine and even a worthy goal, but it's simply wrong to claim that slipping from #1 to #2 means that we no longer make stuff.

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