You talk about this as if it's going to be a gradual shift away from fossil fuels, but I don't think it's going to be, because we're dealing with corporations which are invested in making as much profit as possible. And they are giant conglomerates, with truly massive capital investments in places, all interconnected and dependent on consumer spending. Bankruptcies and mergers are going to drive a lot of chaos in the coming decades.
I've been saying for years now that I expect life to get rocky for ICE vehicle drivers once we see a sizable percent of EVs on the road.
Everyone has competing gas station chains in their area. As the percent of EVs goes up, one of those chains is going to tits-up and have to shut down. And it's not like their properties are going to be purchased by the other chains - they're all going to start feeling the squeeze of fewer customers coming in the door. Remember, gas stations make most of their profit from everything that's not gas!
So now one chain goes bankrupt, all of the ICE vehicles are going to be forced to go to the other stations. That's a solid temporary boost for them, but hopefully not too much, or they're suddenly going to have lines, and that's really not good for business. The temptation might be to snap up one of the defunct ones, but when you see years of declining sales, that's a short-term gamble. And taking on someone else's brownfields site is not something you choose to do lightly.
As more chains go out of business, the refineries they buy from are going to start to get squeezed. At some point one of them is also going to go bankrupt, and we'll see that same loss of product ripple through the industry, while the remaining customers flood some of the remaining refineries, giving them a short-term boost. But again there's the real question about what to do given years of declining sales. Try to buy the defunct one and squeeze a few more years out of it? Run at max capacity and leave some customers without any product?
I don't think it's going to be a smooth decline. I foresee a LOT of churn, bankruptcies and mergers, hugs swings in demand from particular companies as competitors go out of business and the remainder of their customers come flooding in. For customers, it will mean the convenient gas stations may cease to exist, driving them to go further to the remaining ones. And if there's too much demand or a product squeeze, that means lines for gas. And once you're driving 20 minutes out of your way for gas, and/or waiting in line, how much better does an EV start to look?